Monday, 13 December 2010

One view on the future of Christianity

In the last of the present series about the future of Christianity Cheri Blair, wife of former British longest serving Prime Minister and a practicing Barrister, asked the question, why is the Christian Church failing in Europe but thriving in the USA? Only 14% of the population in the USA claim to have no belief in any form of God whereas the percentage is 44% in the UK and 69% in Sweden.

In the programme Cheri did not address the question of the existence of God, or the historical validity of the Bible and the evidence for reported life of Jesus of Nazareth. She started from the basic assumptions of faith, of people with faith attending church. She asked questions of Anglican and Catholics Leaders in the UK and then went on a visit to the USA, speaking to such individuals as the Rev Jesse Jackson and the wife of President Bush.

Three things emerged from the programme. The first was not about Christianity but about Cheri Blair. The programme confirmed my hunch that she is planning a political career, on similar lines to that of Hilary Clinton, or perhaps she is even more ambitious with being Britain’s first elected President when after the death of the Queen Elizabeth, the country decides on radical reform with an elected head of State the abolition of the House as a chamber with titles and disestablishment of the Church of England.

The second is that instead of being a traditional Catholic she is at the forefront of arguing for women to have equality in the church and indirectly she questioned the continuation of the Church of England and even more indirectly the Monarch after Queen Elizabeth. It was evident from what was said that the Catholic Church with the present Pope is retreating even more into the establishing the purity of the faith and against modernism. An old friend from her youth in Liverpool who became a priest comments that the Catholic church has always been against change and that even to day if he took his ministry to prostitutes and gays he would expect to come under fire from within the church in contrast to the reported approach of Jesus of Nazareth. One British Church Leader could offer no explanation why the attendance and active participation was significantly falling.

Cheri suggested that one explanation has been the involvement of Europe in too major World Wars, with the occupations, the impact of the bombing of the civilian population, something with was not experienced in the USA and even in Civil war citizens woman and children, the elderly and sick were not directly affected in general. One has only see to the reaction to 9/11 to appreciate the difference between the experience of the two countries such as the decision not to take action to prevent the destruction of Coventry for example, despite having advance intelligence, because to do so would have revealed the extent to which we had penetrated their communications code. Several thousand were killed and injured un addition to the destruction of the city centre. Such actions, including the holocaust would test faith although there is little evidence in fact that it did, quite the contrary in fact as the churches thrived. Cheri argued that the change in the UK occurred with the freedom of the sixties which were significant greater than girls wearing short skirts and the impact of the contraception pill. For me issues such as the development of weapons mass destruction condoned by the Christian religions, the condoning of racial persecution and intolerance, the acceptance of Western wealth and third world poverty and sickness were also factors which challenged the authority of the older generation of the old order in the UK who I felt then and still do had become hypocrites unchristian.

In the United States various factors have created a different situation with perhaps the most important being the separation of the state from religious beliefs. This meant that traditional faiths could flourish with the establishment of Catholicism as a major force with the waves of immigrants from Italy, Ireland, Poland, Central and South America. Similarly there have been influxes of people of the Jewish faith in the early part of the 20th century and then again before the Second World War commenced and afterwards. Given that many of the early settlers went to the USA in order to achieve religious freedom it is not surprising that Protestants now accounts for over 50% of the population, that there are hundreds of different faiths and that many of the major new faiths originated the USA with each having several million of followers.

There has also been a strong movement, or movements is more appropriate to bring those with different doctrinal and practice preferences together

The consequence of this has been the growth over the past two decades of the mega church community, Cheri Blair visit one which was original established by a small group of young people who were dissatisfied with the religions of their childhood. To day they have created no one but several mega church buildings which from the outside look more like shipping malls or cinema multiplexes arena auditoriums with sating for 20000, cinema seats, large screens and full amplified audio visual presentations but proclaiming the basic and original Christian messages. The establishments provide places for a comprehensive range of activities and for a major involvement in all forms of charitable works. The positive aspects are the sense of equality and opposition to racial and other prejudices and the impression that participation is for as much or as little as individuals want, but the approach is to provide a total approach for life rather than just as religious fix once a week, not different to go to a football match or rock concert, opera and other forms of entertainment sport and group experience, However the feeling that this could be a weekly injection of religion which enabled people to go on with their life as before remained.

The cultures of post World Wars I and II Britain were very different from that in the USA in the same period, but the enlargement of the European Community and globalization does provide the opportunity for new approaches to become established. However I am not convinced that the older established churches, particularly the Catholic Church and the Churches of England and Scotland are able to adapt themselves, or that there is the momentum for the same kind of developments in the UK as in the USA. It would be necessary for the Monarchy and the Aristocracy to removed from government and the disestablishment of the Church of England.

I was awake in time for the Anew Marr Show where Greg Dyke was Greg Dyke and the discussion ranged from Bankers, MI5 and Torture, Margaret Thatcher and Jane Goody. There was a good and balanced piece on the death of Ivan Cameron and the approach to disabled children and support for their parents. I also enjoyed a piece of Radio Caroline and the disbelief some young people have that there was no popular music on the BBC radio and we had to listen to Radio Luxembourg.

I watched part of the League Cup where Manchester |United were not on form having rested a number of key players and Spurs had opportunities to win during normal time and then in the period of extra time, but were hopeless with the penalties kicks failing twice in the first three which Man United took successfully. Prior to this I watched Newcastle lose at Bolton 1.0 enjoying a lunch of roast pork joint and roast potatoes. Followed by grapes. Later I had a gammon salad

During the morning I had felt in the mood for Bach first with the Organ and the well known Toccata and Fugue which is the headline piece on of the first classical Long Play record in my small library, followed by a record of Cantatas, his Violin Concerto and then a two album of the Brandenburg’s. I listened to some Cantatas, a harpsichord concerto and some of the Brandenburg. I am listening to the cello suites 1-4 while writing.

Immediately after the Cheri Blair Programme I was transport to the late Victorian Countryside with Lark Rise to Candleford where the eldest sister of the dress store who was the at the cusp of polite good behaviour and scandal avoidance and the local policeman an authority figure in the community have a brief clandestine affairs during the period each year when the husband devoted himself to garden in preparation of the autumn show and his wife had taken to her bed in a form of protest at her dis-satisfaction with the state of their relationship. Mention of the dress shop reminded of an early episode when a piece of coloured ribbon was bought to brighten the life of the wife of the stonemason who was also feeling under the long marital weather and mothering. As a child I was also fascinated by pieces of coloured ribbon bought to adorn dresses made to pattern by my birth mother who became most skilled although it was an elder sister whop had stayed at home in Gibraltar to make the clothes for the family of seven sisters and four brothers. She used a pedal movement machine just after the war and then bought a small table top model which I learnt to use although only on sewing small patches of cut offs together.

The relationship is ended with the help of the younger sister and other good neighbours and other situations in the episode are nicely resolved to leave the audience with good feelings, including me.

Having complied that Lost had lost some of its integration and cohesiveness with the first episodes, last night was excellent with the back story on Locke’s suicide which was in fact a murder by guess who (Ben), and we find that Locke’s body along with the although Jack and Hurley, Kate, Sayid, Sun Hwa and Ben. The plane is hit by the white light turbulence that is moving the island in place and time and only Jack and Hurley and Kate find themselves back on the Island. In this episode the rest/some of the passengers have crashed on the island and one of them meets up with a female who has been under the custody of Sayid on the plane and mentions that she has found Locke who did cores not member being among the passengers. He says the last thing he remembers is dying. He then flashes back to when we last had knowledge of him after returning as part of the Oceanic six survivors, in Tunisia where he is contact by Charles Widmore who explains that he was on the Island but ejected by Ben and that the six need to return in order to prevent catastrophe with Ben at the heart of the trouble and offers to help him find and persuade the others to return together, giving him a false identity and a helper. Locke meets resistance from everyone contacted and then his helper is killed, (he learns by Ben subsequently) who comes to hospital where he has been taken after the shooting and subsequent car accident and where he is the process of committing suicide. Ben stops this, is given information by Locke where upon Ben strangles Locke and fakes his death as the suicide he was originally attempting. Back on the Island after the crash Locke goes to see some injured survivors and this includes Ben. One of the other passengers asks, do you know and him and Lock utters what will become of the great lines of TV drama. Yes. He killed me!.

Monday, 6 December 2010

The future of the Monarchy and Mr Paul Burrell

Is the UK heading for a Republic when Queen Elizabeth dies? Long then may she reign. This thought struck me not because of media interest in the inauguration of Barack Obama as the next President of the United States but the way the media has featured to attitude of Prince Phillip with his slitty eyes comment in days long since passed, then Prince Harry with his Nazi fancy dress and then suddenly bringing to light a three year old video of him calling a colleague a popular race name among a large section of British folk, then Prince Charles reported as doing something similar in relation to someone at the Polo club. Despite apologies and defences the matter has continued to be discussed, as it was on Question Time Thursday, and the behaviour condemned by heavy weights of the three main Political Parties. By coincidence, I presume, there was also an interesting, but purpose odd programme, on the former butler of Diana, former Princess of Wales, Paul Burrell during which serious allegations against a member of the Royal Family were resurrected..

British Politicians and media have always been understandably two faced on the issue of race. I say understandable because it is morally right and socially desirable that in principle everyone in the UK is treated with fairness and given similar opportunities regardless of their racial ethnicity, their country of origin, their parental background and present social status. It is wrong in principle for anyone to be handicapped because of the colour of their skin, because of their parents or other family members, because of their religious and political views, their sexual orientation, where they live, or how they spend their time and money.

I say in principle because their are some exceptions to everyone being treated with fairness and not handicapped by their behaviour. However this does not refer to their colour, or parental background for example but to what they have personally done or not done in the past. Someone who has committed murder should be viewed with continuing suspicion whether they are in prison or not. They should be given the opportunity to demonstrate that they have reformed and able to fit back into society and be eligible for its privileges. Because they have completed a prison sentence does not mean that their slate should be automatically wiped clean. Similarly if someone has been guilty of fraud or straight forward stealing money, they should understand ongoing caution about them being put into any position where they have access to or control of the funds of anyone other than themselves. Human beings can fundamentally change their behaviour, their beliefs and the language they use, but it is wise to be cautious about anyone with a pedigree of crime or anti social behaviour. There are issues in relation to their marital partners and their children which will affect ho society responds to them as parents.

What I object to, and believe is counter productive, is when politicians, the media and others in public positions try and pretend that the UK has not been a racist country or pretends that racism and other forms of prejudice has not only be ingrained into every aspect of British life but continues to thrive. I have met tens of thousands of people in my lifetime and I have not met anyone who is not prejudiced about something or someone. For a decade in Germany almost everyone was not just members of fascist organisations but supported Hitler and Nazism, just as the majority in Communist countries believed in Communism and supported the Russian style of state authoritarianism. And these beliefs did not just suddenly stop when Germany surrendered in 1945 or the Berlin Wall was demolished. A large number of people continue to hold their beliefs until the day they die, but also learn to keep their views private, preferably to themselves. Remembering the Jesuit principle of give me the child for seven years and I give you the adult, by the time most children started school in the UK in the last century their beliefs and attitudes were already fashioned and it is only within the past decade with the significant growth of nursery education that new generations will not be imbued with the beliefs and attitudes of their parents to the same extent as previously.

Therefore it is important that politicians, the media and those in authority continually reinforce what is acceptable and what is not, while understanding the extent of the problem and the nature of the change required. It is especially difficult for some whose lives are under constant scrutiny, and where a lot of money can be made by disclosure, to be always on their guard against saying or doing anything which will be interpreted as offensive or unacceptable to some section of society, or to their contemporary society in general. I am therefore surprised and disappointed that Prince Charles and one of his sons have not yet grasped that even in their private society it is important to avoid statements and behaviour which will cause offence and more importantly further undermine the likelihood of the monarchy surviving Queen Elizabeth. At a stroke all the good work of military service and good causes has been undone.

This brings me to the programme on Paul Burrell. There was an air of revolution in London and around Britain when the former Princess Diana died. It has taken a decade for the combined efforts of the Monarchy, Government, the UK media and two dodgy enquiries to reach the position when for the time being other issues have replaced nationally expressed concerns about her death. Even Mr Al Fayed appears to have dropped his efforts to establish the truth.

I have had and continue to have reservations about the way Paul Burrell portrayed his relationship with Princess Diana, having read the first of his two books and viewed his TV appearances, and followed what happened at the Trial. His semi banishment to the USA where it appears he is doing financially well, seemed a fair outcome for everyone and I assumed that was the end of his influence in the UK over the life and death of the Princess and the future of the Monarchy.

The one hour programme on Channel Four on Thursday Paul Burrell: What Really Happened, is part of a new series with presenter Jacques Peretti. Now who is Jacques Peretti?. I am always suspicious about individuals who poke their noses into the lives of other people in such a public way and yet do not reveal much about themselves if my Internet and Wikipedia search is one indication. To-date his TV programmes have been about sex and the effect of Hitler upon popular Culture; he has written, produced and directed one programme in the IMD database, written and directed a second and produced two others before this new series which I understand will also cover Michael Jackson and Amy Winehouse. The list of references in the Guardian to his writing is more extensive both in subject and quantity.

The focus of this what really happened is the trial where Mr Burrell was accused of taking without authority some 300 odd items belonging to Princess Diana from her home. In the programme Mr Peretti seemed to me to be implying but then backtracking that the main reason for the original police raid was a tape which was said to have been made by the Princess when she visited a former employee of the Royal Family who claimed he was raped by one of its member’s. Mr Peretti also implied but also backtracked that a deal had been done in which Paul Burrell left the UK and limited what was subsequently said to the public in exchange for the memory recall of her Majesty reported to the court shortly before he was due to be cross examined. The programme also reminded of what Mr Burrell was reported to have said following his appearance at the Inquest. The programme ended with Mr Peretti posing the question: Did Mr Burrell know something which would blow the Monarchy out of the water or was he a clever bluffer?

Mr Peretti revealed that the outing of Mr Burrell’s alleged relationship with a man living in Australia had come from the Palace. However he also stated that the reason why the British media turned their fury on Mr Burrell was not out of deference to Palace wishes but because he had sold his story to only one Fleet Street (national) newspaper. Mr Peretti also obtained interviews with the father and brother of Mr Burrell who were both upset at the lack of contact, especially the lack of any invitation to visit in the USA. Mr Peretti arrived at the shuttered home of Mr Burrell to find a car pointedly outside the garage to signal that he was home but not for you. One assumes that the programme did contact Mr Burrell or his agent in advance at some point. The programme did not say if there had been a private meeting subsequently, if the visit outside the property and the non appearance had been pre arranged. I was left wanting to know more about Mr Peretti and his methods. Oh you cynical you.

I was left with the feeling that something is going on within parts of the establishment in which the future of Britain as a Monarchy after the Queen is being best questioned, tested, and alternatives planned.

I have watched four hours of American Idol over two days. What is said to be the biggest season so far is being compressed. The problem is that people have become bored with the preliminaries. We are not impressed by sights of thousands of people surrounding the auditions and most of us are embarrassed by the humiliation of those who cannot sing, and disinterested by those who know they cannot sing but see the programme as the opportunity for personal publicity. Most of us can see through the formula of carefully selecting most of the possible finalists for exposure, especially if they have a moving story to tell, they are young, have some quirk such as being the brother of the third runner up of the last series. Those behind the programme need to devise a new formula for the preliminaries.
As I walked to Smiths on Thursday I attempted to count the number of paces and estimate that the total for the outing was between 3250 and 3500 about a quarter of the activity required each day. I am determined to maintain this quantity while the weather continues to be cold. I mark my intake of nutrition fair to good.

I was interested by a series of articles in the Daily Mail by Paul McKenna on the subject of sleep. Foe those who want to have a normal sleep pattern of eight or so while it is dark the advice not to have naps during the day is obviously a sound one. Going to bed only when you are sleepy and not staying in bed getting worked up about not sleeping is advice I have been following with good effect. What continues to upset is when I am in the half and hall zone tired but unable to sleep and tired but unable to work or become engaged in something worthwhile

When one eats and drinks and what one eats and drinks are important factors but alas the rule not drink anything with caffeine some eight hours before bed time is a definite no no. My present diet is a good one a d I have banned Pepsi Coke. If I drink alcohol my body reaction follows the standard pattern of being sleepy and sometimes sleeping well on the settee in front of the TV and then I usually am fully awake and mentally active,

I agree with not trying to sleep just after I have watched something interesting on TV or completed a piece of writing and I sometimes do the washing up and sorting out of food for the following day but making a list is usually counter productive. My sleep environment is a good one, dark and quiet although the air surrounding the bed is sometimes too warm when I forget to switch off the hearing about an hour before retiring. However for me the problems are mental as well as physical,. I am sure the techniques and exercises outlined in the four articles of varying length and quality will be helpful to many. In my instance it is about management enable the maximum use of waking time and just with the issues of weight and exercise it is a question of will and application.

What went wrong with British financial institutions

Last night there was the first of a BBC 2 programme covering the bank crisis which led to the collapse of the financial system and economic meltdown around the world. The programme commenced with how the banking system came from China to Venice via Marco Polo where he had found that traders used paper, ‘flying money’ to represent the value of goods rather than transfer gold and silver. It was a short step from the use of paper money to want to charge interest and this posed a problem for the Venetian Christians, for as every Christian knows, money lending and charging interest was prohibited by Christ as recorded in the New Testament. The Venetians got around this by getting the Jewish Citizens to undertake the system for them which became established in the stalls at the Rialto hence the term Banco for Bank and which I understand is the word for stall. It was later that fixed premises were established to conduct financial matters of this nature in Florence, Lombardy. (Lombard Street in the City of London became one to the key address in the contemporary financial world).

The Programme had commenced with the loss of the first Mars probe which resulted in the rocket space craft gaining speed instead of slowing as it approached the Red Planet and 125 million dollars disappeared into space. The cause was a communications human error by those ordering the craft and those making the craft misunderstanding the specifications. This reminds when in Cheshire 1971 1974 during the creation and development of the first social services department in the county, a new residential home for people with learning difficulties was purpose built and cloakrooms were included with wash basins but with without the toilets which had been intended.

Evans Davis, the well known BBC financial expert, and author and presenter of the programme, The City Uncovered, Banks and how to break them, used this example of rocket scientists losing the plot for two reasons as those who devised the complex trading systems on Wall Street became known as the Rocket scientists and in their case it was not a hundred billion dollars that was effectively wasted, but hundreds of billions. Was the 2007 and 2008 financial crash the result of human error, of greed or the system being too clever and too fragile for humans to master at this time?

Mr Davis then explained that how the banking system as it developed two arms which converged with the development of computerised technology. Most people are familiar with the activities of banks on the High street although it was not until my care mother was 90 and my birth mother 92 that they held cheque book accounts for the first time, having relied on the Post Office saving accounts when they first came to England and then the building society for the purpose of savings. For the every day payment of bills and settlement of monthly accounts they used cash which my birth mother kept in envelopes.

The High Street bank was regarded as one of the symbols of British steadfastness and security. You could deposit money from earnings for the regular payment of bills and through cheque books for one off expenditure items and transfers into savings accounts which earned interest. You could borrow money to buy a homes or a car although Buildings societies and specialist car loan firms where the more likely call for the average individual and family. Banks were seen more as places which handled the finance of businesses and large corporations and provided them with the funds for expansion and to covering operating expenses. The bank card and the credit card changed the position in relation to individuals and families.

The second development was previously explained in the Nial Fergusson Ascent of Money series that the investment banking system was established in France by a Scotsman, prior to the French revolution, trading in shares and then in stocks and currencies and how the merging of these two functions coupled with the use of increasing complex computerised mathematical systems created the present collapse.

The BBC 2 programme then looked at the collapse of banks, Northern Rock and Lehman Brothers, one a traditional building society which became a bank and then an investment and trading bank, and the other a traditional investment bank which became involved in the property mortgage business. The two former chief Executives have been called to account by the respective political bodies of their countries. Both financial institutions commenced in 1850, a significant period in the history of my maternal family in Calne, The Northern Counties Building Society was established in Newcastle with the purpose of taking deposits and lending out money for people to buy domestic properties. The Northern Rock as it became re-branded, remained basically doing this until 1997 when to had become a highly respected and significant employer in the North East.

At this point it is important remind the essential nature of this form banking which is to lend long and borrow short. The money is lent for long periods at a higher rate of interest than the banks is prepared to borrow money, which is short, that to take your savings with the promise to pay back on demand instantly, or with notice for which a higher rate of interest is paid, for a week’s notice, a month, a year or for longer but usually not for more than three to five years in the form of a bond and sometimes with an interest bonus designed to encourage the investor not to cash in before the required period. This however means that even though there is a flow of income from loans previously made should everyone who has lent short term seeks their money back, the bank in question could find itself insolvent because no bank or financial institution, or business for that matter likes to have capital in the form of cash, liquidity the technical term, held, and not earning some income

The banks also have share holders who expect dividends and the value of shares reflects the value placed on the bank by the financial market and which in turn is influenced by profits which the bank makes on the difference between the interest it charges and the cost of the cash it needs to issue further loans and ensure it can meet its operating costs and fluctuations between the level of income from investments and repayments and interests and the demand for new loans.

Given the principle of lending long which means it does not get its money back for decades, but it borrows short which means that if required to pay back suddenly and at less than long term value and with limited cash reserves banks are always at risk and vulnerable. This is not something generally appreciated by the public until recently, who I believe that the bank held the actual money which they had deposited with it.

Say a bank lends £100 million in mortgages to be repaid with interest in 20 years which will yield £200 million in total and does this every month. It has cash reserves of £10 million in relation to each month’s of new lending and capital assets but selling all its administrative buildings will mean the end of trading and take time to find a buyer and the if required because of an emergency the price obtained will be significantly less than at times of its making.
It order to finance new loans the bank has to borrow money which traditionally would come from money parked very short by businesses and public bodies such as local authorities, and individual savers.

Over the recent decade the volume of new savings was reported in the programme to have increased by 2% a year while the demand for new loans for properties increased from 10 to 15% approximately (I am not sure about these figures which I think applied in the UK rather than the USA), Moreover the banks had been searching for new ways to make themselves more secure especially as they were only allowed invest in the most secure of investments, I believe with a triple A rating which excluded investing is most if not all the stock market however much blue chip,

It is now appropriate to turn to Lehman Brothers which according to the programme commenced in 1850 as a store in Montgomery Alabama and which at the time of its collapse had a workforce of 28000, including 5000 in a tower at Canary wharf London. It had become one of great financial enterprises in the world, because early on in its history the brothers had started to trade in cotton, then moved into the railways, financing the once great store chains such as Woolworths, and into financing Hollywood Pictures with, RKO and 20th Century Fox, then the production of television sets and financing Intel the computer chip giant.

In the 1970’s there developed on Wall Street the way, it appeared, of lessening the risks which all banks are subject if the short term borrowers come knocking for the immediate repayment of their money. There are three steps in the process. First the bank borrows wholesale from other banks rather than individuals, say £100 million and this enables the bank to loan out to buy houses say at an average of £200000, that is to 500 customers, on a monthly basis. Under the old model it would retain the property deeds so if the loans went bad it had the property to sell. It established rules which attempted to identify potential bad risks and ensure that the value of the property, bought if immediately resold would bring in more than was lost in failure to make repayments and the interest.

The new development which I believe is called C.O.D Collateral Debt Obligations (the collateral is the property and the debt the loan) were then sold. The programme gave the example of David Bowie who on reaching his early sixties decided to sell his expected royalties over the next ten years from his previous work, calculated on the basis of returns over the previous decade. He did so for £55 million in the form of bonds which those purchasing getting royalties and interest. He preferred to have use of the funds now, less than he would actually come in while those buying Bowie bonds were promised a higher capital return and interest.

What banks did was to do this with mortgage loans, but to do so using the latest computerised technology devised by mathematicians some of whom once worked on the space exploration, The programme revealed that the prospectus documents can run into two hundred pages, Moreover the C.O.D were not just single packages of all the new loans made in a month graded according to assessed risk levels but mixtures which each C.O.D offering a different mixture. Working out if the promised investment return was likely to be realised and if there were risks was difficult to impossible.

Everyone started to make money, lots of money because the sellers, were getting in money immediately not just for the value of the loans repaid but also the interest that would be paid in, but they offered the paper at discount to allow for some bad debts and that the money would be repaid long. The banks also got rid of the bad debt risk which became the responsibility of the of the purchaser of the “securitization“. The selling banks had increasing amounts of cash to make further loans, to pay higher dividends and to reward employees with higher salaries and bonuses some as much and more than the basic salary. Those buying the C.O.Ds such as Hedge Funds and Local authorities thought they were getting a good bargain because they were holding the paper for assets which when repaid with interest was significantly greater than their current market value. If individual defaulted the property market was such that the asset sold would be worth more than the outstanding debt. The person or company that borrowed the funds to buy property, often to rent out in the UK was also not worried because even if the receipts were less than anticipated the asset was increasing in such value if sold they would have profit over the debt.
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Then the situation became even more complicated as the financial rocket scientists worked out even more complex C.O.D which involved the reselling of packages of C.O.Ds known as C.O.D squares.

However even though there was a boom in getting loans for properties these were not enough to satisfy market demand and the profits and bonuses required. It was at this point the idea of giving loans to those previously denied them, called the sub prime in the USA was developed and using self certification of income, offering very low interest repayments over the first couple of years.

In 1997 Northern Rock became a bank with shares quoted on the stock exchange and all its savers were issued with shares which if sold gave a all profit. I was someone who had saved with Northern Rock and subsequently cashed in the shares. Northern Rock had a forceful creative shaper leader as Chief Executive who seized upon “securitization“, as they knew financial tool was called, and increased the banks share of the mortgage market from 2% to 17% making it the third largest mortgage lender in the UK. It offered a package of Mortgage for buying a home extra cash and a Credit card all with the same rate of interest.

Contrary to some media reports Northern Rock did not then issue loans to buy properties on the same basis as Lehman brothers and Bear Stems for example. What it did was to act as an agent for Lehman’s, for which it was paid a fee and therefore the high risk was taken by Lehman’s who made the funds available and by those who subsequently bought the C.O.D. Northern Rock was quite open about this saying in its annual report that among its services was to help arrange sub prime loans and self certified loans. It could therefore advise customers what to do if they did not meet the higher North Rock lending criteria.

A combination of developments created the crisis in individual banks. When banks offered a C.O.D they were offering a new paper security which was required to meet standards set by national governments through its regulatory agencies and with each security graded. The problem was that these regulation authorities were paid a fee not by the prospective purchaser for an assessment as we in the UK might use the A.A when buying a car or asking a valuer to assess a property under consideration, but by the seller; moreover instead of being able to lift the bonnet and inspect engine, or view the recent stock market history of a share or a stock, or examine the individual property being purchased, they were confronted with a detailed specification with mathematical formulas which it is now evident those creating them did not understand the risk. Next the banks themselves began to be buy the C.O.Ds thus getting profit twice. The profit from selling the C.O.D and the profit from buying it. Then the housing market plunged and those involved, the banks and their traders began to panic and rumours and fears bred fear not to be the one to be caught out first.

Then in September 2007 the great run on Northern Rock was created and the news programme showed lines of customers waiting outside its branches. One of the reasons why the customers became so visible was because of the shift away from lots of branches with lots of small and not so small savers to the issuing loans of via telephones, the internet and post buying in new money wholesale from other banks. I did this on my last loan and no face to face contact with anyone. Northern Rock was a target because of its runaway success, so when banks started to become more cautious about loaning money to other banks Northern Rock came under pressure and news of this led to demand to withdraw deposits and the government deciding to back depositors to a certain level leaving shareholders facing massive losses.

When The Chief Executive of Northern Rock was quizzed by a House of Commons Committee he was asked the question. When did you qualify as a banker? His reply was I did not qualify as a banker, and he could have added I trained as general manager and chief executive. I was reminded of the time at the International General Management Course attended in the mid 1980’s when asked if I was interested in becoming a Chief Executive of a local authority which then did not provide Social Services as one of its functions. I quickly thought about it and decided that I would stick to the knitting, doing what I had trained for and become an expert through long experience, but also decided to use the knowledge gained from the course to become a better manager and team colleague, and perhaps take on the challenge of a larger and better paid social service authority.

The former Chief Executive of the Northern Rock was also asked what could he have done, with hindsight, to have prevented the disaster and he was unrepentant, It was not his fault and this brought condemnation in the media. The former Chief Executive of Lehman’s adopted a different approach and admitted he spent his nights going over what happened and trying to identify where a different decision might have prevented the collapse. However this did not save him from the comment that he was regarded as the villain and not the victim, He and others are now to face a Grand Jury.

My understanding is that then reason why Bear Sterns was the first to nearly fail but was rescued and Lehman’s was allowed to fail is that they held more of the sub prime and self certified mortgages than other institutions and when the storm clouds gathered they were unable to offload as part of new C.O.Ds. I suspect the personality and approach of the both Chief Executive’s played their part, together the different approach of governments and different election time tables.,

But should the bankers alone be standing trial the media dock? The first question goes back to Pre Marco Polo Times and the fundamental point that what are people doing calling themselves Christian if one the of the main points made by Christ was that money lending for interest is wrong?

I am less convinced about the responsibility of governments whose functions is to provide for national security, to assist everyone to make money to provide for themselves and to provide help and care for those unable to look after themselves or their families. Given the economic failure of the communist/socialist model it is understandable if the democratic countries rooted in capitalism embraced financial innovations which appeared to eliminate boom and bust and to offer an ongoing economic growth which while enabling some individuals to become very rich provided the fund for the development of improving standards of living for everyone except at the lower 10 to 20% and with sufficient to also assist the less developed countries.

Similarly the function of Chief Executives and Boards of Directors is to protect and increase profits for dividends to the share holders. I can understand why traditional banks, especially those who were building societies became caught up the world of C.O.Ds and investment banking, and why investment banks became involved with the tradition functions of building societies and High Street banks and became involved in mortgage lending such has been the demand for mortgages.

I can also understand why salaries and bonuses escalated. If one successful firm pays x for the best managers, then it is inevitable that X plus 1 will be paid to attract the same calibre of managers to those firms seeking to achieve similar or better status and profitability.

Anyone who has lived in rented accommodation knows the difference in the sense of freedom to and the self confidence that paying to own property brings so, I have more sympathy with the USA approach to lend to the sub prime and for the right to buy local authority accommodation in the UK than I have for the development of the private landlord on either side of the Atlantic.

I also have sympathy with the position of the regulatory authorities and even for the financial rocket scientists who tried to work out systems which enabled everyone to make money while reducing risk. Individuals who knew what was going on and still went ahead or operated frauds clearly should be tried and judged as appropriate and when the crisis is over understanding what happened and where different choices might have avoided what has happened needs to be investigated in depth in order for everyone to learn for the future.

I am not in favour of scapegoating in principle I have argued that human beings tend to look for and need scapegoats to take away the blame from populations in general as in the Baby P case with the head of service, or the show trial which is the basis of the film- The Reader. However I also accept that the scapegoat can be a safety valve which prevents community disorder and revolution.

The emphasis has to be re establishing confidence and getting the economy moving forward again in concert with all other advanced economies. It struck me while writing that if the 28000 staff of Lehman’s had a total annual income with bonuses of only 100000$ that is close to 3 trillion dollars out of economy. A proportion of these will face loss of their main living accommodation and they will not longer be able to afford the other aspects of the current lifestyle, holidays, private education and medical insurance, new cars, lots of meals in restaurants and visits to top notch sport and entertainment events. But the 28000 at Lehman’s brothers is just the tip of job losses on both sides of the Atlantic and at 100000 job loess and then 1 million job losses one can begin to see the domino effect on economies.

Yesterday at Prime Minister’s Question Time the Conservative Party Strategy for the next 18 months before the next General Election became clear. Continually remind people who is to blame politically for the economic situation. not the bankers, the Hedge Fund managers and the public for borrowing too much, but the Government for not stopping what has happened. This is a valid attack if not fair because all government regardless of their party politics are in the same boat. It is a matter of debate if Barrack Obama would have become USA President if the financial crises had been delayed a year. Although in the .long run the absence from office may be upsetting to Republicans who would have been in the administration, from the longer viewpoint, they know that it will be difficult for a Democratic administration to survive the next four years and the worse it becomes the better politically for Republican party. The one difference is the personality of the next President, and if his party in Congress get behind him and his Ministers then an eight year term and further terms become a good possibility. Thus one can expect the Republicans to start to emphasise the political differences between them and the new administration.

This is the second prong of the Conservative attack. It is to argue that while Gordon Brown has set his stall out as a do something government, accusing the Conservatives of a do nothing party they are pressing him to show what his measures have achieved so far.

This is a very dangerous strategy and potentially damaging not just for his party but to the country. It is potentially not just unpatriotic but reckless, As one previous President said at his inauguration there is nothing worse than fear itself. By continually criticising everything that the government is doing regardless whether it brings immediate result or does not, the Conservative Opposition leaders are at risk of ensuring that the action does not work by spreading fear and the lack of confidence. They may gain popularity in the media polls but at what long term price?

I did a little work and have not mentioned before that I have achieve 8000 work sets and officially one third of the project has been completed.

Tuesday, 23 November 2010

2008-2009 assessments

I have the suspicion that politicians on both sides of the pond and more significantly their economic advisers, failed to understand the nature of the financial monster they had created. My reasoning is that if they had they would have taken urgent steps to put the breaks on long before the crashing commenced.

I will not pretend that I understand what has happened and why but I am attempting to find out in order to establish where the responsibility rests. The more urgent interest is to understand the implications of what has happened and of what is being done

It is evident that Governments have been forced to do two things. The first is to finds ways to ensure the capitalist banking and financial system survives and re-establishes world wide confidence. Far from punishing investment bankers and other investment bodies the priority has been to ensure the services remain in London City and Wall Street New York to the present level and are not transferred elsewhere. Secondary has been the need to re-establish a working system in the UK and despite the appearance of measure to reflate the economy the government has set the tone by only offering loans at high rates of interests thus ending the era of cheap money, and oppressing banks to ensure they have a better relationship between their assets and borrowing which means taking as little risk as possible with new loans. Therefore business of all kinds and sizes are finding that they are unable to get working money because this is potentially only more bad debt, with the consequence of going into administration and putting hundreds of thousands out of work and which means less spending power, more drain on savings and more government expenditure on supporting individual families.

The second consequence is that Governments cannot proceed with their planned programmes and policies such as tackling environmental issues, reducing poverty and disease overseas, supporting the arts and experimental research. Everything is geared to maintaining employment and reducing dependency on governmental financial support to individuals and families.

I have only commenced to work through Robert Peston’s Who Runs Britain which begins by pointing out the impact of the creation of private equity firms, groups of perhaps two or three partners with a staff of one or two hundred whose function was identify suitable business for purchase where by a combinations of actions which involved selling off parts and streamlining the remainder they could then resell at sufficient profit, not just 10 or 50 or 100% but several 100%. They would make the partners not just rich but exceptionally rich billionaires with their there staff receiving six figure bonuses on top of six figure salaries. Tax Rules governing Wall Street New York and London City meant that the wealthiest only paid 10% back to the government and therefore they became even wealthier and more influential.

They achieve this by raising capital in two ways. Direct from investors who looked forward to above average returns on their investments and on comparatively cheap money from the lending institutions. The borrowing was not of millions but of billions. Much of the wealth was achieved by increasing the value of businesses through the share capital. The bonus paid to partners and staff was not just a cash dividend with the head of British Home Stores given himself one billion at one point but in shares and share options at prices which meant that with the increase in company profitability the share price rose and more gains could be paid. The providing of shares was the carrot to ensure managers worked even harder to increase the value of their company. Now staff sit around because no existing business is safe so funds have to be parked as safely as possible, and because no business is safe nor is the equity fund itself, so borrowing money for new speculations has also become non existent.

Alongside but interlinked were those funds which used the latest predictive and offsetting formula which attempted to eliminate the uncertainties of the ups and downs of share trading, the currency markets, and commodity futures such as oil and gold. Much of the activity was based on a significant level of gearing so that what the Hedge fund managers were doing was to buy the option to buy or sell for a fraction of the asset market price and they also borrowed several fold the asset value of the investor funds to increase the quantity of the options purchased. It is not just those who own, manage or invest in these funds who gained, but the lawyers and the accountants and money loaned earned interest and volumes of business earned bonuses.

One of the offsets which attempted to ensure that risk element was reduced has been to resell debt, money owed especially debt which was high risk, and this appears to have been the source the collapse of the financial pyramid. In the UK there was the great enthusiasm for buying properties to rent out not for income but for capital appreciation. Buy a home for £60000 and within five years it was beings sold for £180000. Borrow not £60000 but £75000 to make improvements and to cover for the gap between rental income and interest payments, so even if you only managed to pay interest rather than capital there was a tidy profit for minimum work, especially if you did this on a grander scale in terms of property value or number of properties and arrange for a property management company to sort out the lettings and the rent collection. But what if property values start to go down or people stop moving to improve their location and lifestyle. This was doing with homes what sued to be done with office space often unoccupied for year but nevertheless increasing in capital value. In The USA more than in the UK this enthusiasm for loaning money for people to buy proper was extended to those who had no hope of maintaining payments and had no collateral, including a secured job.

Back in the mid 1990’s I undertook assessments for the National Lottery Charities Board grant aid programmes and the details of individual assessments must remain confidential. For close on two decades as a local authority chief officer I had to struggle to master the financial system, especially the accounting system operated by my employers and its financial officers and which to a great extent was controlled by government economic and financial policy and practice, but it was only as a consequence of my national lottery experience that I learnt that the biggest shysters of all are the creative accountants and their companions in magical formulations- the auditors. One way of assessing the goodness of a charitable organisation is to first examine how much of the money raised is used to pay staff and fund their offices and professional life styles. To be registered as a Charity the national regulating board lays down guidelines about the ratio of administration costs to funds raised and used for charitable purpose. The art is to therefore to present administrative costs within these guidelines. The more expensive the accountant the cleverer the way the financial dealings can be presented to ensure that those running the organisation keep their incomes and offices, their hospitality and a status which attracts celebrities and politicians and media support which maintain public confidence and ensures a continuing income. One of the arts is to divide the organisation into different accounting units and spread the administrative costs between these units and a system of recharges. Then there is what is classified as revenue income and expenditure and what is capital and how debt is described and to some extent masked. What found through this work appears to be the common practice among those who managed funds exponentially. In fact my understanding is that the greater the funds and the image built the greater the scale of fraud. Unfortunately because on both sides of the Atlantic we like politicians who are common and like one us we pick people who are not match for those with greater intellect and in the UK and I assume the USA because of the way we recruit and reward our civil servants they also are not up to the task of identifying the con artists before they have created havoc.

I previously mentioned the last episode of the Ascent of Money in which Professor Niall Fergusson explained part of the reasons for the near collapse of the great financial pyramid created over the past three decades. I had hoped to look at the available earlier programmes on the Channel Four internet site but had difficulties as the programmes froze after the opening advertisements were completed. I managed to gain a viewing on the older laptop which uses Windows XP with the addition of a Plug in to the Microsoft media player. However for the Vista desktop I had to switch from my usual browser to another to use the Digital Management Licensing Diagnostic to copy pages of code which I then included in an email which after a couple of days led to the information that I also needed a plug in and was given the internet reference and where the relevant data information was transferred within second so I was able to watch the important programme which covers the development of the public liability stock company and market and the impact of Scotsman John Law and his Mississippi company which started maverick(criminal) pathway to Enron and John Lay.

In terms of the history and development of human beings it all started comparatively a short while ago with the formation of the Dutch East India Trading Company. According to Wikipedia and the TV programme the “ Dutch East India Company (Vereenigde Oost-Indische Compagnie or VOC in Dutch, literally "United East Indian Company") was a trading company, which was established in 1602, when the States-General of the Netherlands granted it a 21-year monopoly to carry out colonial activities in Asia. It was the first multinational corporation in the world and the first company to issue stock.[1] It was also arguably, the world's first megacorporation, possessing quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, negotiate treaties, coin money, and establish colonies.[2]

The Dutch East India Company remained an important trading concern for almost two centuries, paying an 18% annual dividend for almost 200 years. In its declining years in the late 18th century it was referred to as Vergaan Onder Corruptie which translates as 'Perished By Corruption'. The VOC became bankrupt and was formally dissolved in 1800,[3] its possessions and the debt being taken over by the government of the Dutch Batavian Republic. The VOC's territories became the Dutch East Indies and were expanded over the course of the 19th century to include the whole of the Indonesian archipelago, and in the twentieth century would form Indonesia.”

Its original trade was to bring species by quicker route by sea and the programme explained that although one voyage could pay for the construction of the shop, sea travel was hazardous and therefore owners got together to spread the risk and share the profit. One of the founders of the company each putting up 6000 Guilders saw this accumulated to half a million and an individual investor of 1000 guilders, issued with the first stock holding document, saw the value double and double and double again as soon as the company decided that it would not give cash to investors who wanted their capital but required them to sell to others.

This is where Scotsman John Law becomes relevant because according to the programme he was the brains behind the idea that if the public wanted shares in a successful company then why not raise more capital by issuing more shares as long as those in control owned the greater proportion of the overall share capital. Wikipedia says this of him

*John Law (usually pronounced Jean Lass by contemporary French) (bap. 21 April 1671 – 21 March 1729) was a Scottish economist who believed that money was only a means of exchange that did not constitute wealth in itself and that national wealth depended on trade. At one time he was considered little more than a colorful con man, responsible for the Mississippi Bubble and a chaotic economic collapse in France(which probably led to the French Revolution). Beginning in the 1960s his reputation has improved, to the point he is now considered by some to be one of the most important pre-Adam Smith economic thinkers and a successful economic policymaker whose work was undone by corruption and reactionism of the House of Bourbon. Law was a gambler and a brilliant mental calculator and was known to win card games by mentally calculating the odds. An expert in statistics, he was the originator of economic theories, including two major ideas: 'The Scarcity Theory of Value' and the 'Real bills doctrine'.

His believed that money is not an indication of wealth but a means to promote and it was the production of goods and their trading with trading which created real wealth. He is the first known economist to promote the idea of a national bank which excludes private investment and his exile to France and the problems experienced by the monarchy resulted in his being able to put this idea into practice and in 1718 the Royal Bank was created with its notes backed by the King. Law then created the Mississippi company with a prospectus and balance sheet which misrepresented the value of the company interests and where shares were issues again and again to raise more capital as the demand increased and their price rose within one year from 500 livres to 18000. The problem for the French Government and economy is that they bought into the company as a means of clearing the national debt but when the company collapsed so did the bank and the economy. At one point the Mississippi company is said to have “bought” all the government debt of 1.6 billion livres. This has to be compared which British South Seas company which acquired 80% of British Government debt of only 50 million pounds also in the 1720 and which led to what it known as the South Seas bubble.

The Ascent of money Programme then moved into the present time with the Enron Scandal. Wikipedia says this “ Enron Creditors Recovery Corporation (formerly Enron Corporation, former NYSE ticker symbol ENE) was an American energy company based in Houston, Texas. Before its bankruptcy in late 2001, Enron employed approximately 22,000 (McLean & Elkind, 2003) and was one of the world's leading electricity, natural gas, pulp and paper, and communications companies, with claimed revenues of nearly $101 billion in 2000.[1] Fortune named Enron "America's Most Innovative Company" for six consecutive years. At the end of 2001 it was revealed that its reported financial condition was sustained substantially by institutionalized, systematic, and creatively planned accounting fraud, sometimes called the "Enron scandal". Enron has since become a popular symbol of wilful corporate fraud and corruption. The scandal was also considered a landmark case in the field of business fraud and brought into question the accounting practices of many corporations throughout the United States. Enron filed for bankruptcy protection in the Southern District of New York in late 2001 and selected Weil, Gotshal & Manges as its bankruptcy counsel. It emerged from bankruptcy in November 2004 after one of the biggest and most complex bankruptcy cases in U.S. history. On September 7, 2006, Enron sold Prisma Energy International Inc., its last remaining business, to Ashmore Energy International Ltd. Following the scandal, lawsuits against Enron's directors were notable because the directors settled the suits by paying very significant sums of money personally. The scandal also caused the dissolution of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm, affecting the wider business world.[2] In early 2007, Enron changed its name to Enron Creditors Recovery Corporation, to reflect its status as a (largely) asset-less shell corporation. Its current goal is to liquidate all remaining assets of the company. For most of 2007, Enron continued to operate under the name Enron Corp. by filing a Doing Business As, or "dba" certificate in Harris County, Texas. “ There are two elements of the Enron story which form a theme to this piece of writing. According to the programme, the top 140 executives were each given bonuses of 5.3 million dollars its collapse and indeed bonus cheques were being issued as its employees were given their redundancies notices. The Enron secret was to disguise the extent of its debts from £13 billion in the balance sheet to $38 billion and this was only possible through its accountants. The disguises of debts off the main balance sheet has been generally adopted by Governments, Local Authorities, Corporations, private investments and hedge funds for years and i deed there is much debate in banking and government circles that Banks should be able to permanently clear their current books of bad debts. What Enron did which enraged so many people was when it shares reached a market value of $90 its executives commenced to sell their personal holdings recommending everyone else to buy on the basis they the shared could expect to rise to £130 to $140.

Robert O’Harrow Jnr and Brady Dennis Washington Post Staff writers have published the first of their three part study of “Wall Street greed and Washington Blindness” and describe aspects of how Howard Sosin and Randy Rackson came together with Barry Goldman to develop their elaborate financial constructions from their experience in using interest rate swaps. It is only possible to understand interest rate swaps if you are a mathematician and know all about the money markets and Wikipedia just compounds one’s ignorance of both. My understanding is that their objective was to reduce or eliminate the risks that could arise from changes in interest rates over a longer term period that the life of existing swaps reported to be two to three years. For close on two decades the articles explains that their undertaking, the American International group provided the machinery to enable the greatest investments institutions such as Goldman Sacks and Merril Lynch, governments, municipalities and corporations “to free up cash, get rid of debt and guard against rising interests rates or currency fluctuations”

When the company was on the verge of collapse last September George Bush argued that e government could not allow the institution to fail and has provided a bail out of 152 billion, I repeat billion dollars, because the company was too entwined with the rest of the world economy, by implication that if it failed so did the world economy. The article states that many of the approaches adopted by AIG have been copied by financial bodies all over the world. Creating vast interlocking deals that no one except the originators fully understood, if they ever did, in terms of potential implications

The article explains that the three broke from their existing firm in 1987 and negotiated a contract deal with Greenberg at AIG in which they kept 38% of the profits with the rest going to AIG. They spent six months at first in a windowless officer with hired furniture creating the first all embracing computer programme which stored every piece of available information and continuously analysed so that they were in a better position than anyone else to see opportunities and of taking on risks which others did not see, but because they possessed information they were more able to protect themselves. In terms of their trading activities they concentrated on the futures market and on a risk management approach, hedging which involved in effect betting on whether the prices went up or down. The profit is possible if the gain from an individual trade is greater than the combined expenditure of both trades and allows of administrative overheads.

I do not know but I think it works like this. It began with the future market where produces, of oil crops, beef steak and such like enter into a futures contract to supply x quantity and x price. They have some certainty over future income, assuming they are able to deliver the quantity and quality stipulated and the purchaser is also able to plan ahead. The provider gains if the actual market price at the time of the agreed is less but loses if the market price has been higher. Although oil reached over $100 dollars a barrel recently is likely that vast quantity were sold contract for significantly, where as those who bought new contracts when the market was over $100 will be stunned that the current market price is half this.

What then happened si that he money manipulators and their investors decided they wanted to reduce the risk and make more money by two developments.

I go to commodities market through an approved dealer and but not an actual contract to say buy or sell 1 million barrels of oil at $75 dollars a barrel say six months, one year or longer away and because of the time gap the option price of both options is low say $10. If I have a contract to buy and the price drops markedly I do not exercise my right to buy and therefore only lose $10. It is jumps to sat £110 dollars then I will but and make profit of £35 dollars a barrel, and likewise if the contract is to sell However in reality the changes over a period of time are less dramatic and the margins of gains and loss smaller and I have to take account of the administrative costs of buy and selling or exercising the option. However as an investor, individual, bank, insurance firm, local government body I am not interested in just buy a few barrels of oil but talk in terms hundreds of thousands and millions of barrels.

The Hedge is to enter into contracts to buy and sell the same quantity over the same time period and to sell both options before their expiry. Say I but the option to buy and sell 1million barrels and the option to do this cost 2 x $10 million dollars. Say the price of one the options falls $9 dollars a barrel so I sell this as quickly as the trend is identified, limiting my loss on this trade to $1million plus the dealing charges. However because I have bought both sets of options my other trade is now selling for $12 dollars make $2 million dollars less charges and £1 million profit overall less charges. The margins are usually smaller than this, but with trades being made all day and every day, the profits accumulate over the losses. But there is risk involved

What Sosin and his colleagues worked out was a complex trading programme which incorporated all the available information and which identified the best points at which to sell and buy

The objective was to make money but reduce risks so every action they took was looked at in depth every day with attention paid to overall losses and as much as the overall gains. The kind of people involved were as much interested in producing the foolproof systems as it was in the making of money. This is not necessarily a good thing because of the tendency to become so involved in mastering, being ahead and winning the game, that the consequences of the game on everyone else is overlooked.

It was only a short while after the operation went into business that Sosin is reported to have contacted AIG Vice Chairman to say they were entering into a contract with the Italian government for a $1 billion dollar interest swap about ten times the size of what was being done in general and the deal would produce a profit of around $3 million greater than the two other operations of AIG expected to achieve in a year. It is important to remember that the core function of AIG was insurance not speculative trading, the new trading arm under Sosin and his colleagues made $ 60 million profit n the first six months. They changed offices to Maddison Avenue. They also moved into currency, stocks and municipal bonds. They opened offices in London and Tokyo and set up a small bank in Paris.

However the honeymoon is reported not to have lasted long when first Sosin and his colleagues insisted on being paid bonuses up front on one deal even if took the AIG decades to achieve the profit which the bonuses reflected and the unease grew when on one deal $100 million was lost. It was more of a clash of cultures and temperament, so Sosin left with his crew taking a copy of the system with him while the former company under a new management negotiated a new deal with more of the profit to AIG and only half the bonuses on new long term deals taken up front with the rest paid over the time. I have once been to a casino once and where I watched rather than gambled and this was in 1965. I watched someone win and lose several thousands pounds within a short period of time. When he won say £100 he gave £10 chips (the currency was in fact francs) to the croupier and to his female companion, so on his way winning £4000 he gave the girl £400 and the croupier a similar sum. The girls friend and the croupier kept their share when he lost the rest. I have every sympathy with Greenberg the head of AIG when he decided to pay less up front and concentrate more long term and sustained profits.

who took the view that if girlfriend had been responsible for selecting the numbers . The croupier kept his bonus although the man lost all that he had won and kept for himself. He also had his income and reminds me of the position of deal traders, the lawyers and the accountants who job is to process and present the deal within the rules to ensure their legality and to minimise the taxation to governments. The girl friend picked the number so it could be argued she was entitled to some of the rewards and I do not know what was the amount of his original stake and whether this was more or less than what the girlfriend took away. My observation that evening was that the man was more interested in thrilling and pleasing his companion than in making or losing money and her grateful response, unless it was actually her money he was playing with may will have compensated him for any financial loss. I did note that the majority of the men were older, and fatter than one expected to see and that there appeared to be a higher proportion of outstanding looking, dressed, made up and younger women on the arms of many an older men who did live up to the Hollywood image.

According to the article the re-jigged arm of AIG found that others in the market were duplicating the approach so profit margins began to shrink and pressure was on to devise new and more complicated deals in new areas. The hedging and minimising of risk continued and overall profits increased from £140 million 1995 to $323 1998. However what the writer call the beautiful machine was about to crack.

I decided to end the writing at this point to finish my wheeling and dealing for the day. I use the Travel Lodge Motels and City centre Hotels because they are ideal for me. I love a double bed and quick access to the bathrooms as I wake during the night. The tea and coffee is adequate which I supplement by buying from the nearest store. There are Lodge Hotels close to Kings cross station and also at Croydon near the station so that I can travel by train to Kings Cross or coach to Victoria Station and cut out the hassle and cost of travelling by car, but equally the car provides greater flexibility and I can fill with the kitchen sink. There is usually standard TV but I can supplement this with wireless internet for £20 for a week’s use. However the best reason for using Travel Lodge is the price. Three times this year special internet offers have been made for as low as £9 a night or room where a last minute stop can cost as much as £120. I had previously obtained one trop to London with six nights for £54 5 x 9 and one at 19 and to-day by rising at 5.30 and being prepared with dates and options to fit around home games of County Champions Durham, the Whitley Bay Jazz festival and other personal commitments and interests I was able to arrange five new trips making a total of 31 nights at an average expenditure of £12 a night compared with the just before average price of just under £80 a gearing of 6 to 7 times less. I have not engaged in so many trips over such a short trip covering late spring and summer since 2004 when I visited former homes and places of work, went to Gibraltar and undertook family history searches in London and Wiltshire. However one only becomes 70 once, and in some respects I am amazed to be within a couple of months of this, although being sixty was bad enough and seventy is horrifying.

I turned my attention to another of the Ascent of Money programmes and to a Taggart as well as some food with the rest of the chicken into a Thai style stir fry all from packets with the fresh Thai vegetables vacuum packed, a Thai Style sauce and noodles at midday. There was Anchovies on Crackers with also Poachers Pickle and olives also stuffed with Anchovy as a tea time early evening snack and then a portion of meat balls and pasta in a tomato sauce. There was some ice cream and a banana and custard, but no alcohol. Tomorrow I shall spend New Years Eve on more study of the near collapse of modern capitalism, I shall cook the large joint of ham intended for Christmas as well as a small turkey crown planned for Christmas day. The fridge is nearly empty so I will go out fro some fresh fruit and fresh vegetables to make the intentions for the year. The freezer will continue to be used up as it needs a defrost and again I will review what is bought and what is not. Also need a table lamp for this room as the lighting is behind on to one side and a direct light on the keyboard would be helpful.

Christmas Thoughts 2008

I begin again to write the first of three days. I will report first my experience of Christmas Day 2008. The day commenced with Midnight Mass, which had already commenced at 11 pm British time, celebrated by the Pope at St Peter’s in Vatican City, and it ended for the purpose of this writing with The Messiah by Handel from the Barbican Concert Hall in London. The morning commenced with Carols requested by listeners.

The event of unique importance for me and for everyone was an investigation spread over two hours by Channel Four by an academic religious and cultural historian trying to establish if any part of the Christmas story had a historical basis. Such a programme will have been enjoyed by Jew and Muslim theologians and some believers, and would have been banned in parts of the USA. It will have horrified evangelical churches throughout the world who base their beliefs and teachings upon scriptural writings. However while the programme raises major questions about historical accuracy which could lead top some questioning and losing their faith, it is not a programme about faith or the power of faith and the mind over the physical and the material.

Had such a programme been about Mohammed and the Muslim faith all those connected with the programme would have been declared enemies meriting immediate elimination.

I forgot the time difference between here and Italy and when just before midnight I went in search of midnight mass on the box and caught the last part of a live red button relay from St Peter’s on Sky channel News. I watched to reflect on the lives of my care and birth mothers and their faith, and on decisions regarding my approach to aspects of their lives in the future.

Christmas Day, morning commenced with Classics FM carols while I decided how I was feeling and what kind of day I should experience given the great cook after the great defrost the previous day and a refrigerator filled with plates of cooked but, cold chicken, slices of beef, salmon fish cases and breaded fish.

God Rest you merry Gentleman I bringing you tidings of Joy; Joy to the World.

Away in a Manager for William aged 4 years. Hark the Herald Angel’s Sing.

Twelve Days of Christmas for Patrick aged eight years from Ireland.

Sleigh Ride but is it a Carol?

Christmas Carol John Rutter.

Overture French Carol. The Holy and the Ivy.

Ding Dong Hosanna in Excelsis Hark the Herald Angels Sing.

Bach -Christmas Oration

Sussex Carol-Kings college.

Hallelujah-Handel.

Winters Snow, Oh Holy Night.

Mary’s lullaby John Rutter,

Jingle Bells.

It was time for other things and for lunch. I had bathe, shaved, did my hair, put on fresh clothes and shoes. I was not expecting callers but it was Christmas Day.

In the evening there was a choice of viewing, not the unlimited choice one might have expected with such a captive audience for one day of the year when everything everywhere providing entertainment was closed.

I had marked down as priority the latest Robert Beckford demolition of the academic historical basis for the Christian adherence to the scriptures. Robert Beckford has provided similar programmes over the past four years with Who wrote the Bible in 2004 and attempted to show that what is known as the Bible, especially the New Testament has been the subject of selectivity, including some early texts but excluding others, and was also written by those who often not contemporary witnesses of the situations described and overall was rewritten according to changing needs and circumstances of those controlling the religions. The film appeared on Christmas Day

Two years later on Christmas Day Channel Four showed the second programme which provided the evidence that Jesus was created to John the Baptist and that his family unit consisted of four brothers and two sisters and that his Ministry passed to his eldest brother James and also covered his actual relationship with Mary Magdalene

Last year the Christmas Day programme investigated the historical evidence for aspect of the story of Jesus in earlier religions.

In addition in 2006 Channel Four showed a programme called Ghetto Britain and the BBC also showed programmes on colonial history from the Afro Caribbean perspective, and also in 2006 there was a film about religion and the cinema entitled The Passion: Films and Fury.

Earlier this year a film, the Secrets of the Disciples showed how Judas became demonised and the role of the female Apostles. I obtained the following information about Robert from his official site.

“ Dr Robert Beckford is an educator, author and award-winning broadcaster. An educator for most of his life, he first taught adult literacy at Bournville College in Birmingham in the early 1990s and progressed to become the first ever tutor in Black Theology at Queens College, Birmingham (1992-8) where he taught trainee priests and ministers for the Anglican and Methodist churches.

He began teaching at the University of Birmingham in 1999, working first as a Research Fellow with black offenders at Birmingham Prison and then moving to the faculty as the first Lecturer in Black Theology in 2001. He spent two years as the Reader in Black Theology and Popular Culture at Oxford Brookes University, and is currently teaching as an associate lecturer at Cambridge University.

Robert is the author of five academic texts in the field of religion, culture and politics, including a study of Rastafari and Pentecostalism (Dread and Pentecostal 2002), Gang Culture in Birmingham (God and the Gangs 2004) and a Theology of Reggae-Dub (Jesus Dub 2006). His current research explores the role of documentary film as resistance to the bewitchment of black British Christianity by a-politicism and anti intellectualism (Documentary as Exorcism, Continuum 2010).

A firm believer in teaching for social change, Robert has retained a commitment to teaching outside of traditional contexts, including community groups, care homes and male prisons. An extension of his organic approach to intellectual matters led him into broadcasting in 1999.

Robert has presented a plethora of documentaries on radio and television and made his debut in the Trevor Phillip’s series, Britain’s Slave Past. He quickly moved on to work on number of programmes with BBC 4 including Ebony Towers (2001). Robert presented his first mainstream feature length documentary in 2002 for BBC 2 on the story of Jamaican Independence (Blood and Fire) and earned a BAFTA for diversity in educational broadcasting for a six part series for BBC Religion (Test of Time 2002). He began working with Channel 4 in 2003 and struck up a dynamic partnership with the commissioning editor, Aaqil Ahmed.

To date Robert has averaged an impressive two films per year with Channel 4, becoming a regular fixture on the prime time television slots of Christmas Day and Easter Sunday. He even found time to present a weekly BBC West Midlands Radio Show in Birmingham 2006/7. As one of the most prolific black documentary presenters in Britain, his credits include God is Black (2004), Empire Pays Back (2005), The Secret Family of Jesus (2006), The Great Africa Scandal (2007), The Secrets of the 12 Disciples (2008) Decoding the Nativity (2008)and The Dark Ages and the emergence of an English inclusivity(2009).

His films for channel 4 have earned him a ‘controversial’ label which he interprets as, ‘a cultural field that can only locate black men as athletes, entertainers or problematic.’

Secure with his modest success, Robert has worked to develop talent within the African and African Caribbean community, including Andy Akinwolere (Blue Peter)and Jazz artist Soweto Kinch. Robert is currently turning his hand to TV drama and is currently collaborating with playwright and actor, Kwame Kwe-Armah on a gritty but redemptive urban series.”




The Wikipedia article give the impression that he is still the Reader In Black Theology and popular culture at the Oxford Brookes University, based on the former City Technology college and which became the alternative University in the City and for the County, on Headington Hill having taken over the estate of Robert Maxwell at Headington Hall which was opposite the former technical College during my first year at Ruskin and then when I lived for just over a year at Headington.

In the present programme there is not much of the present Christmas Nativity story which remains unchallenged. I spent the greater part of Saturday morning two days later trying to view the programme again using the Channel Four player in order to ensure that I was able to follow up the programme with other research

Who was Mary and where did she live is the first question behind this programme? The first problem is that Nazareth does not appear to have existed as place until several hundred years after her death but there is the remains of what would have been the largest urban area in Galilee at that time and which was the scene of much trouble between the local inhabitants of the Roman occupiers which much rape of young women and boys.


This brings to one of the central beliefs of Catholicism but a lesser extent of other Christian faith except the Evangelical: The virgin Birth. The programme presents the issue that as an orthodox Jew given that the New Testament indicates Mary, Joseph and Jesus were, had Mary become pregnant outside of marriage because of a loving relationship she and her lover would have been stoned to death. The programme argues that the more likely option was the she along with others was the subject of rape by Roman soldiers and there is recorded references to Jesus being the son of particular Roman soldier and that the child was accepted by Joseph as his own.

There is also the matter that one of the writers of the New Testament scriptures which were accepted into the Catholic and subsequent Christian Bibles goes to great length to demonstrate the Joseph was 27th generation descendent of King David of Bethlehem, and important thing to do because of the Old testament prophecy that the Messiah be a descendent of Davis and would be born in Bethlehem. Given the evidence which Beckford collated for his earlier programme that Jesus had brothers and sisters, the argument that Joseph was in fact the normal father must also be considered a strong possibility.

Just as December 25th is the day of a pagan festival, the year of broth remains debatable for reasons related to the reign of King Herod and the reference to the reason for the trip to Bethlehem was the census. The census took place when Jesus was about ten years of age and there is no evidence that Jews would have been required to move to their ancestral home places assuming that they knew there these were. The whole Bethlehem nativity is a theological creation to show that the prophecy had been fulfilled.

Moreover of the two scriptural reference one refers to Jesus born in a house/home and the other, presuming the tie in with Bethlehem that there was no room in the Inn. The reference to Stable and feeding troth (manger) are only in one scripture and can be argued as part of fitting the birth into the Messiah prophecy. If one examines the houses used by Jewish citizens at that time then the birth warmest have taken place in the best and warmest room within the property and which would have shared animals.

The Nativity as performed by children in schools throughout Christian based countries provides a picture of a birth with Joseph, Shepherds and visiting kings. However the reality that for a birth at time the men would have played no part until the cleansing ritual would have been completed. The Shepherds represent the the ordinary Jewish people at that time who in fact only grazed their sheep between March and November. There is also only reference to wise men from the East who later became kings and one black. This was a later addition to reflect the development of Ethiopia which a Christian country several centuries later and the largest and second most powerful country at the time. Most Catholic and Christian theologians regard this part of the nativity as a development, flowering one put it, which became a picture with the Renaissance.

Robert then produces the conclusion from with which eh started. The story of the Nativity as it has come to be handed down through the Christian church is a theological creation to help the development on what became a new religion in the centuries following the death of Jesus. The writers of the New Testament scriptures about the birth were not historians or contemporary witnesses but they were writers recording their beliefs and their faiths to be passed on to others. For Catholics and Christians there is the divinity of Jesus through his birth and his resurrection after human death offering eternal salvation.

To understand the power of this concept listen to the Handel’s Messiah as I did on Christmas Day evening with Sir Colin Davis conducting the London Symphony Orchestra for the last time before becoming its president, a position which has not been filled for close on two decades. But if one really wants to understand the nature and power of faith then I reflect on the years, the months, the weeks and the days and then final moments of the death of my mother

Wednesday, 10 November 2010

Philosophy of Time and Space

The most important issue facing the United States of America is not who will become the President but how soon will alternative heating, lighting and motor energies enable the recreation of the economy as China become the mass production centre of the world. Watching John Snow as he travelled the 1000 miles of West Coast America this evening he suggested ways in which the nation might be changing to maintain its economic edge over China and compete profitable with the Europe and remain the world's greatest capitalist economy once the recession is overcome.

The first was a sustainable population base which included a sufficient stream of talented young people who formed the creative entrepreneurial force fuelling the economy, and surprisingly suggested that in addition to providing a competitive work in the lower paid service industries, the Latino migration might need to be stimulated as well as controlled. There are parallels with the arrival of about 1 million people from Poland to the UK since the extension to the E.E.C and the concern being expressed that their departure will have adverse effects on the British economy unless there is a significant change in the level of education and the approach to work of about a fifth British school leavers each year. John Snow visited a school in a poor neighbourhood gang ridden area which had its own police security services but was being transformed with a million dollar decorative make over which was hoped to change a situation where only a fifth left school with the basics of education attractive to employers. own police force. A key element of the Barack campaign is the need for a programme which addressed the costs of higher education which disabled sections of the community with potential for contributing to economic growth.

His visit to Seattle underlined that positive nature of the relationship with China as the total export from Washington State was greater than the imports and where people of Chinese and Asian origin now formed fifteen percent of the population and where one recent governor was of the descendent of third generation who had come to the America to be a servants and to wash dishes while learning the languages and lifestyle. However the problems as with the rest of Europe that the trade involved the exporting of production jobs to China, India and other developing economies and will consequential impact on the jobs and lives of the workers and their families displaced. Interestingly Senator McCain is more committed to free trade and Senator Obama to Protectionism.

It was difficult to accept the generalizations being made based on single interviews John Snow also visited a church which meets in a school assembly hall and where the pastor criticised the way George Bush had identified one form of Christianity with his party, suggesting a moral superiority in addition to economic. This church prayed for a global Christianity among a world of different faiths and expressed concern at the way Christianity had been hijacked by politicians in a particular way. Until then he had not found evidence of any significant change in lifestyle required in an economy over dependent on externally supplied energy and needing to reduce the overall level to combat the effects of global warming. He visited I believe in Portland a growing community in Portland who are attempting a major qualitative lifestyle change on a large scale although the extent of this project was not spelt out and there have always been small communities attempting to live according to different values from the mainstream. Such projects are important but there are two development which could make the difference, the first is the alternative to oil for use with the combustion engine and he visited an enterprise who have developed a sports car able to travel from 0 to 60 within a few seconds operating on a battery giving a mileage of 250. However the firm are in the process of developing a saloon vehicle with a greater range which could be start of the change from the combustion engine to battery and eventually solar power. One feels that no significant change will be made until batteries can be charged as they are driven given the usual recharge time required.

His other visit, which in my judgement was the most significant, was to a firm trying to develop solar energy receptors and converters which could provide the heating and power source energy on the kind of scale and at a price which not just reduced dependency on overseas oil but changed the balance in energy use and impact on the environment. For me the future of humanity on planet earth is presently finite and its future will depend on space travel, and possibly the existence of intelligence at higher level of development than human.

This brings me to the substantive Wikipedia article about the Philosophy of Space and Time and which involves questions such as do space and time exist independently of the mind and whether they exist independently of each other. And to questions of dimensions other than the four of breadth, depth, width and time, and about individual identity especially the nature of identity over time.

For a long period of time during my life I was in disarray because I thought that that proponents of diametrically opposed propositions were right, and I had no means of explaining this to myself or anyone else. I was more inclined to idealism than scientific realism. Kant in the Critique of Pure Reason which I attempted to read and understand as part of my Ruskin Diploma course in Politics and Economics before I changed to Public and Social Administration, argues that things like space and time are mind created systematic frameworks to enable us to understand and make sense of our experience but question their existence independently of individual perception and individual understanding.

At the time I was much affected by the problems of number and how number was also a construction to help understand the world perceived as external to ourselves. If you divide 1 by 3 you get .3333333 recurring, but if you multiply .3 by 3 you get.9, you multiply.33 by 3 you get .99 and so on indefinitely. So where is the missing .11111? Number is therefore a concept we can communicate to others and which we can use to count and to measure but is only an approximation and device to explain and work on aspects of external reality. Yesterday I talked of the reality of a box and raised whether it exists independently of those who perceive it, arguing that it did because I could see and describe and move away and forget my knowledge of it, but others could continue to view that experience throughout eternity if it was projected/transmitted at the same time as when I viewed and continued after I ceased viewing, or was recorded and subsequently transmitted, or because others could establish that the box continued to exist in the form I had seen and touched and where their description at different times was identical to mine.

I have become a realist by thought and experience, believing that time and space not only exists independently of my own mind, and of all other human minds, but have always existed and will always continue to exist as they did before human beings on earth evolved and after they do not exist on earth.

I also accept that the way we presently understand the extent of the universe within the totality of space and the position and the movement of components of the universe has only been described by human beings, and that it is irrational to presume that there are no other beings existing or who have existed or will exist who possess greater understanding and ability to explain and describe the nature of the universe, and its space and time, or to assume that we will not be able to communicate with such beings because of their ability to travel through space and time, or our future ability to do so.

The first and best example of this is the assumption usually made that we can only move forward in time. At present my movement between Newcastle and London is governed by the known maximum speed of flight as is my potential movement to the Moon or to the Planet Mars. If I develop ways to escalate the speed of travel to better than a second a second, to say two seconds a second and I travel up and down over the same spot for a period one hour, then I will arrive back 30 minutes into the future of everyone who has not travelled. In theory therefore if I travel up and down for one year at the speed of two seconds a second, I will return a year ahead in time of everyone else and theoretical I should also be to travel back in time, as when we film an event we can then play it backwards whether with a traditional tape film or a digital DVD and we can do this endlessly and if something falls and breaks we can witness it being reassembled. However in our present direct experience we cannot recreate a once broken glass, a feat accomplished by Merlin in the film yesterday when he spilt the contents of a container and used magic to reverse what happened. We will not need magic if we travel back as well as ward faster than the present measurement of time
At the present time we can remember what has happened in the past, individually and collectively but we are limited in terms of predicting the future, although as with weather forecasting, tide tables and other phenomenon previously considered beyond prediction significant progress has and is being made. We have also been able to measure the age of things going back thousands and hundred of thousands of years. So while we now think of time as only having a forward movement in terms of unknown things about to happen and measuring what has previously happened, it is irrational to suppose that human or other being will not devise ways of both predicting future behaviour with increasing accuracy and of proving such predictions by moving forward in time and moving back.

I have touched on the question of perception and consciousness but not the subconscious or the main questions about the nature of individual identity and changes in identity.

I converted myself to the view that in addition to our immediate self awareness and memory we retain an awareness and memory of everything that has gone before in our lives and that these memories govern our immediate thoughts, feelings and actions as much. and at times significantly greater than we are able to recall. I also believe that the genetic coding which we pass on, as others have passed on to us, contain memories of the experience of our ancestors and their ancestors accumulatively. I again use the similarity of the computer hard drive which has a maximum capacity which once reached overlays areas with new information and it is the overlaid information which can be recalled by current programmes, but it is also possible to detect what has been overlaid. I believe that this is also so for the human brain and where the individual composition of storage, retrieval and reproducing information varies because of different histories and external stimulation as well as variations in construction and programmes.

It is presently possible to clone animals where the evidence is they are physically identical and physically behave as the master creature. Will this also apply to the human being? If the physical clone is absolutely identical with no variation will the depository of ancestral knowledge and experience also be precisely identical and how much variation will occur because of differences in time, with the clone commencing their existence after the master and consequently l possess a very different set of external influences and information to the original. Both being are physically identical but they can be said to operate in different dimension.

For me it is factual that human beings now operate in different dimensions with the most important the dimension of external reality which others can describe in ways which confirms an existence separate from individual perception. The same individual also operate in a dimension when their perception is influenced by conscious and stored data which can distort the perception of time which can appear slower or faster. The same being can also live in the dimension of his and his ancestral past and which may or may not be identical or similar to the external reality and internalised perception at the original time. The same individual can live in the different dimension created by the mechanism of waking dream where individuals have some awareness and some memory. It is known that the internal visual and audio memory also continues when the individual is asleep and is not self aware and this is observable by others when a subject sleep walks, speaks and acts. And similar even when an individual is static and asleep it possible to measure ongoing brain activity to demonstrate the likelihood that the internal visual and audio motor is continuing. It also known that the organs of individuals can shut down all or part for short and long periods and return to full self consciousness and awareness even if they are not always able to communicate this. These are all separate and different dimensional states.

It I also theoretically possible for individuals to be propelled forward and backwards at a faster rate than time is normal measured and therefore they will arrive at a different time point before or after their journey commenced depending on the speed and it is also theoretically possible for the two states to continue in parallel just as when a human being is cloned it is the same human being in terms physical structure and this should or may also include identical ancestral information and memory projected into the present, but subsequently a clone will experience and respond to a different array of stimuli in a different external environment. This presently explains why identical twins can think feel and behave in similar ways of they are brought up together over the same period of time and in the same environment and they can also possess significant similarities but also differences if they are brought up by different people in different environments.

The description of an identity is the inherited physical and psychological structural which in my view includes all the accumulation of ancestral information and memory which has been transferred together with the accumulation of stored inputs as a life progresses. Therefore aspects of the identity change with the accumulation of information and experience and which occurs in different dimensional condition.

In previous writings I have also suggested that recent developments in the ability to experience and record the behaviour and speech of others at a distance via digital transmission presently between the earth and points in space and back via orbital satellites and manned projectiles reveal the possibility that everything we do and say can be experienced anytime, anywhere and by anyone with the technology to do so in so far as human beings based on planet earth, but this being so why is not possible by other human type being or intelligent and self aware beings across the universe and given the infinite nature of the universe then what we say and do can be said to continue top exist for eternity as well as in out individual memory banks as well as in the memory banks of all those with whom we shared experience.

I have also argued that in addition to the accumulated information and experience stored in individual brains there is the accumulation of interactive experience which has a totality greater than any individual combinations and becomes more than the total; of the separate contributions, and that this takes the form of accumulated banks of goodness and badness which can effect what happens with a society or between societies for varying periods of time depending on how the individuals and societies then respond.

It is also my belief that some individuals because of the nature of their brain and the way all or parts of that brain functions, and because of the way they have been raised or because of what happens to them are able to draw upon their individual memories and experiences and those of others in such a way that there are physical manifestations are created. Is my contention that the power of the individual brain can affect the actual physical world external to them as well as the perceptions of other to the external world. There is whole area of minds being controlled and manipulated via audio and visual interventions and by external drugs as well as by internal; mechanisms. These powers lead to ghosts an other apparitions and to communications with ancestors in a direct way as well as to other living beings which those being may not be aware of.

For the moment and I suspect the rest of my being I am content just to explore the four dimension within my brain with occasional forays to places previously experienced and meetings and contact with others known at different periods of time.

There was quite a lot of sport on television today with two Premiership football matches, an NFL match played at Wembley and the second warm up cricket match in the Stanford 10 million twenty million dollar series playing in the West. Indies and which I watched part of the England innings and that of Middlesex who came within a few runs of winning on a difficult wicket where everyone has been putting down catches.

I was surprised to find a second Antiques Road show coming from Southwell and I relaxed with a new Frost which had one twist. I enjoyed watching a Bergerac which I have seen at least twice before, I cooked a whole chicken for a late lunch with the some roast potatoes which were crispy and more enjoyable together with the remaining carrots and peas which I had with two pork chops yesterday. This was followed by a par and this evening I had two mini apple pies with custard after an olive salad. I had a toasted tomato sandwich for tea.