Hopes and fear in Noeth Africa and Arabia

As with the news media it has been difficult to know on which country to focus as reports of civil unrest and insurrection appeared from Algeria in west north Africa, Libya adjacent to Egypt and with Tunisia to the North, Jordan across the canal isthmus, the Yemen to the south of Saudi Arabia, in Iraq and Iran and then within the gulf itself Kuwait and Bahrain. It was quickly evident that the cause of the unrest or the form and extent of unrest was different although the precipitating cause was the success of what had happened in Egypt where mass civil disobedience protest had been successful despite the use of civil and private force, the apparatus of a police state and the stubbornness of delusional rulers.

I write this in an emotional and clear headed state because of the way events have unfolded over the last days.

Al-Jazeera UK provided an excellent account of what has happened in Egypt over the past three weeks, with the giant swings of emotions from expectations a week Thursday crushed in the political blindness and personal pride and obstinacy of the 30 years in power ruler as he and his vice president made one last hopeless call on the country to return to previous normality. They were met with a resounding angry no and renewed determination which led to the ecstatic celebrations a week Friday, renewed this Friday as with the approval of the Military Council, hundreds of thousands congregated around the country.

They were also there to remember the dead and to remind the Military Council of their expectation of the changes they require. The Military Police were present in the form of their band playing the national anthem and national songs and marches. Over the past week the Military Council has continued to issue communiqués saying that it will only continue in its present role until a new constitution and elections bring a new President and civil administration. It has said that existing treaties especially that with Israel will be honoured. It has arrested three former government ministers after placing two or all three under house arrest and frozen their assets. It has also taken action against one businessman amid reports that some of the most wealthy had already left the country in a fleet of private jets. It has called on the Commission preparing the new constitution to bring forward proposals within two weeks. It has said it will not field a candidate in the election for the new President. However it retains control of the Internal media and nothing has yet been reported which has come to my attention that the strict censorship controls are beginning to be lifted. Nor has there been evidence presented on the dismantling of the apparatus of the police state or the release of political prisoners. There is also no evidence that the tourists have commenced to return in any numbers. The stock exchange is yet to reopen. However there are no reports of violence or civil unrest. If the Military Council wanted any reminder of what will happen if it now fails to meet state commitments and timetables events elsewhere should keep them focused.

For a time the most worrying development appeared to be that in the small state of Bahrain, a collection of small islands with the largest of the 33 only 11 miles by 34 and an overall population of 1.2 million and where Britain had a major influencing control until the early 1970’s. And still has a base, together with the USA who uses the World Heritage site harbour for its Middle East Fleet. The Harbour area has also become the base for developing financial and commercial services and next month the International Motor Racing Grand Prix series commences as it has over recent years. The Crown Prince and his son are educated and enlightened men who have made important changes over the past decade and appeared unlikely causes of the decision to attack peaceful demonstrators in the middle of the night with the maximum force causing a a number of deaths and serious injuries. The shocked response of the USA President and British Foreign secretary summed up the fear that instead of learning the lessons of Egypt, forces within the country, perhaps under the influence of the Saudi’s had decided to try and tough it out

Bahrain is located next to vast Saudi Arabia with the other small gulf state of Qatar close by and where the longest connecting causeway is to be built, It sits midway in the Gulf with Kuwait and Iraq at the inner end, with Iran across the water and United Arab States and Oman at the mouth.

Iran has had and continues to have covetous intentions on Bahrain and other Gulf States and there have been previous uprisings in the part of the oppressed Shia majority and both these factors together with the movements in Tunisia and Egypt has made the regime and its Western Allies, notable the USA and the UK Jittery. The underlying problems are deeper and as elsewhere embrace the basic desires for democratic involvement and opportunities, freedom of expression, and potential for economic advancement.

The country has been ruled by the same family for 200 years and control and their ruler has been absolute although it does have a Prime Minister, uncle of the King and other family members hold the overwhelming majority of senior positions in ruling Council. It has developed a small Parliament which quickly became divided between Sunni and Shia religious groups seeking an Islamic state and when the voting went against the intentions to create a secular state in which women and Muslim interests were to be given roles.. Howver the Shia were largely excluded from government and other positions in the state by the Sunni minority and there was also significant corruption

It is my understanding that the regime did introduce recent improvements in wages and promised political and economic reforms in response to events in Tunisia and Egypt, but any good will was destroyed by the callous and brutal suppression of protesters on the roundabout area just outside the city centre. The government then accused the demonstrators of possessing guns and other weapons, refuted by eye witness reports from the international media.

As in Egypt the country has developed an educated and cultured middle class and the regime has supporters who benefited from government jobs and the profits from oil revenues and the older industry of pearl fishing. It was this middle class and often western educated and travelled section of society that is likely to have exerted influence on the King to control his relatives. It is also understood that the American president and British Foreign Secretary had direct contact with the crown prince after reports of 10 people killed and 500 injured. This immediately led to calls for the regime to be replaced.

However the Crown Prince appears to have intervened and in speeches in Arabic and an in English to CNN it is evident he is upset and determined to bring about change and investigate the events of the past days. The security forces have been withdrawn from the streets and protestors allowed to return and take control of the roundabout area setting up camp with food and medical supplies. It seems the absolute monarch has pulled back from the brink but whether this is enough to save him in the long term will depend on the action taken over the next days and weeks. Once you turn your guns on peaceful, albeit determined demonstrators, you are unlikely to be trusted again. The Crown Prince has to prove he was not responsible by arresting and prosecuting those who were responsible, even if they are also members of his own extended family.

The second flashpoint this week has been Libya, a socialist republic with a military dictator. This is a large country but with a comparatively small population of 6.4 million and where just over a quarter live in the capital city of Tripoli which remains the power base for the one of the most well known leaders in the world Muammar al-Gaddafi. For approximately 450 years 1551 to 1911 the country was controlled by the Turkish Empire and then by Italy until 1951 with substantial colonization by its people who formed 20 percent of the total. There was a substantial killing of the Bedouins who resisted with about half killed in battles or in camps. After a United Nations supervised independence led by its King a military coup in 1969 took place led by Gaddafi then a captain with other junior officers.

The Revolutionary Command Council of 12 came into being at that time and have remained in power. Unlike many Arab countries there is an established organisation of elected Local People’s congresses, some 1500 in total thus or one congress for every 4250. There are 32 regional congresses and the national Peoples Congress, There is considerable control over the media although criticisms are possible and initiated as a means of bringing reform. It is understood that the protests todate, which appeared small scale at first are calling for an end of the Gaddafi regime rather than for democracy. It is also a protest about who has power with the second city of Bengazi having been home for the opposition with the capital Tripoli being the power base for Gaddafi. Bengazi was where the monarchy had its palace nearby and the city has many of the institutions and organisations usually associated with a state capital.

Following the revolution Gaddafi closed the American and British bases and partly nationalised the oil industry. His approach was socialist rather than Communist but established close links with the Soviet Union and supported the Palestinian Liberation movement and other terrorists groups. In the 1980’s Libya was alleged to have been involved in a terrorist bombing in Berlin which killed two USA servicemen with the consequence that the USA undertook a bombing raid which led to several civilian deaths, including the adopted daughter of the Leader.

Over recent years the international issue has been the bomb in a USA plane in mid air over Scotland which in addition to the death of those on board the plane there were also deaths on the ground as well as destruction of buildings. Eventually a Trial of suspects took place in a trial of Netherlands and then the release of the only individuals convicted on grounds of terminal ill health, but after his return was greeted nationally in Libya he has remained alive. This issue created official tension between the USA and British Governments although in reality both the UK and the USA have been interested in developing relations with Libya because of its oil in land and off shore

The change in approach by the UK and USA took place after 9/11 and again following the action in Iraq Compensation has been paid to the families killed in the mid air explosion and those affected by the USA bombing. The regime has remained authoritarian with international concern on civil rights.

The latest information is that between 100 and 200 people have been killed with hundreds of other injured as the regime has announced it will not tolerate the protests. However in Bengazi the city administration, including the police and army units have sided with the protesters hence the decision of the national government to introduce its national guard/elite forces, including professionals bought in to try and ensure that the city remains within the regime. It may be threat the troops within their city military compound fear being over run and lynched and are therefore reacting with more and greater force defensively. It is difficult to see how the situation will end without further bloodshed.

The third flashpoint where deaths have been reported is the Yemen with its population of present 20 million and located at the end of the Arabian Peninsular. This is yet again a very different situation where there has been long standing problems between North and South Yemen

The country gained independence from the Turkish Empire in 1918 and established a monarchy until 1962. The North part of the country became a republic with the UK controlling the south and the port of Aden as a Protectorate. A communist form of government was formed in 1970 and the north and south became united only in 1990. The problem is that the Yemen has dwindling natural resources with 35% unemployed and an increasing and young population with 46% under 15 and a growth rate expected to result in an increase to 60 million by 2050.

Russia and China did provide help in the 1950’s. There was a return of over three quarters of a million citizens expelled from Saudi Arabia contributed to the unrest and civil war in 1994. There has been a close involvement between the Yemen and Somalia with 700000 Somalia citizens already in Yemen when another 100000 were accepted as refugees following their civil war and this may have matched the various moves of Yemeni into Somalia over previous centuries. There are also plans for a bridge linking the Yemen with Djibouti. The country contains several World Heritage sites.

After the civil war in the Yemen the International Monetary Union provided help to make fundamental economic reforms. The country was an ally of Saddam’s Iraq and backed the 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

It is has a democratic structure with a seven year term President, a 301 seat six year Parliament where the Prime Minster has to command two thirds support. The is universal suffrage at 18 but only Muslim’s may hold elected office. The first President elected in 1999 was re-elected in 2006 with international observers confirming that there had been some violence, violations of press freedom and allegations of election fraud. There is a religious based independent judiciary. There are also reports of corruption.

More recently there have been indications of just how volatile the country has become with an insurgency in he South in 2009 and an incident where official information is limited where either USA directly or the Yemen military under direction dropped bombs or rockets of what was believed to be an Al Qaeda training camp in the country in which 60 civilians, including 28 children were killed.

There are an estimated 70000-80000 Yemeni in the UK, with a quarter of this number in France. As with many fo the Gulf and North African states the population is divided into tribes as well as religiously between Sunni 52% and 46% Shia. There is a gulf between the ambitions of its constitution, Internationally agreed civil rights and everyday practice.

So far the protests have been on a massive scale and the number of death comparatively small, caused not by the intervention of government forces but from clashes between different interests. Whereas Egypt and to some extent Bahrain has the economic and financial base in which to address unemployment, poverty, and civil rights, it is difficult to believe progress in the Yemen will be possible without substantial foreign investment and financial help, unlikely while there is support for extreme Muslim beliefs and the worst of a Muslim state where women, critics and non believers have no rights and are severely discriminated against.

I was pleased to hear the USA Ambassador to the UK confirm my understanding and the reports of responsible commentators that there is not conflict or contradiction between having concern about Muslim extremists and having added worry over what will happen as more and more Arab countries become politically and socially unstable, and welcoming the of the general population to want to engage in democratic processes, to have an independent judiciary, a non political police, army and internal security services, in wanting an open media, equality between those of different and mixed genders, of providing equal opportunities for citizens regardless of their beliefs or lack of belief systems and so on.

I was interested by a recent Fox Chanel programme although drawing different conclusions. The programme wanted to warn everyone against encouraging movements supported by Shia adherents because some, notably the present controllers in Iran appear to have taken aspects of their bible teachings literally. The basic premise of Christian, Jewish and Muslim faiths is a resurrection after life of heaven and where there is a hell for those who whose life has involved acts of evil and which is controlled by devils. The Christian/Muslim/ Jewish literalists therefore see human earth world existence as a test period leading to an eternal post human existence in heaven or hell and that helping to bring the coming/second coming is to be encouraged.

All the three religions which originated within a small area of the Middle East and North Africa have their book of Revelations and period of the Apocalypse with the four riders heralding war, famine and death. There is the call of the martyrs for vengeance followed by earthquakes and natural disasters of increasing severity.

The angels then sound the trumpets to mark the destruction by fire, the poisoning of rivers and springs, plagues of locusts and a war in which a third of the population of earth are destroyed.

There is then further chaos and destructions in which the sun scorches the earth in great heat, the is a great earthquake and the final physical battle between the forces of good and evil where the rivers flow with blood.

There is victory by good over evil so that the devil is imprisoned for 1000 years, he escapes makes war but is then defeated. There is the last judgement where is settled those who are to be cast eternally into Hades and the lake of fire and those to are enter a new heaven replacing the old as God is revealed or words to this effect.

What this all mean in practice has been the subject of continuous interpretation by individuals since the words were first written or said, not by the originals such as Christ or Mohamed, but by subsequent followers. Unfortunately one of the most literal believers now has supreme power in Iran and therefore the sooner he is removed from his position the better for all of us and most of all for the majority of Muslims, just as there needs to be proportional action including war on those who seek to promote their own power and influence by exploiting situations of extreme poverty, religious suppression and intolerance in the name of a God and assisting in bringing about the end of human days by promoting chaos and destruction

The behaviour of the USA, the UK, Russia, China, Germany and other nations in the past, and recent past in countless instances towards Arabic and African nations and in to the colonization of Asia and Central and South America had contributed to the distrust, the suspicion and fear.

One can therefore be hopeful and fearful by the events this week in North Africa and Arabia.

The future of Egypt 2011

Slowly the reality of life in Egypt for the majority of citizens unfolds on the television screen across the world for those who are able and willing to pay attention to what is being said and shown and what is not. It is not just a revolution of the people on the streets for democracy and the rule of law we are witnessing but a fundamental change in the position of the governments of the United States of America, here in the UK and of the original and new members of the European Economic Community.

These are now changes which must not fail because of the inevitable impact on those on the street whose identity has been broadcast across the world on the various news media’s. There is the risk of the regime reasserting its authority and retreating to its old ways and of the regime looking to China for political and financial support.

The form of the changes is a matter for the Egyptian people to collectively determine such as the powers and length of term of the head of state and the balance of power between the head of state and Parliament. There should be contested elections for the Presidency and Parliament and such elections should be free from individual bribery, intimidation and violence as well as accurate voter registration and vote counting. There also needs to be greater attention to the rule of law and a major curb on the activities of internal security and police forces. Present controls on the domestic and overseas media must be abolished. My assessment is also that President Mubarak needs to relinquish all power quickly and a time table for the implementation of change agreed with all the principle interests within Egypt.

I believe there are several dangers arising from this people’s revolution. The most worrying is that while the President, Mubarak, maintains his position, in fact as well as in name, a point which the new Vice President has said on international TV more than once, the secret forces for maintaining his power will remain and those who have been interviewed expressing the aspirations and their concerns will be systematically rounded up, tortured and imprisoned or worse as they have been over the past sixty years of autocratic regimes led by military trained individuals.

It has to be noted that while Western governments have called for an enquiry into the organised murderous attacks on peaceful democratic protestors the new Vice President said that the President had ordered an investigation into the uprising and the forces behind it and that those responsible would be severely punished. Several of the main TV channels misinterpreted his words in the same way and it has looked as if many media editors, analysts and presenters have forgotten the history of the regime.

It is vital that that media is not intimidated and remain in situ until occupation of the Square ends and then maintains a close watch until the agreed changes begin to be implemented and their effectiveness monitored. I have in mind what happened in Hungry when the tanks rolled in and again in Tiananmen Square. It is also vital Egypt avoids a rapid descent into civil war followed by years of revenge and repression by one side on the other

I am also concerned that without some immediate settlement between the parties and interest, there will be those willing to switch allegiance from the USA to China which is anxious to gain a stronghold in the North Africa and the Middle East as they have been doing in the rest of the world. The Chinese already have a regime similar to that in Egypt and are as strongly opposed to religious controlled states. There are also those in the USA and the West who will favour this option as preferable to idealistic democracy or a religious controlled state. It also has to be remembered that Egypt switched dramatically once before from the USSR to the USA.
Thirdly there is the danger of the emergence of an fundamentalist anti USA and UK Muslim autocracy in Egypt as it quickly developed in Iran.

I am told that the structure of Muslim faith in Egypt is different from that in Iran and that those Muslims who are members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt accept that in any change they will become active partners in the development of mixed society. First is has to be noted that 90 percent, yes ninety percent of the Egyptian born population of over 80 million are of the Muslim faith by birth and that the majority observe the call to prayer five times a day. The majority of the remainder are Coptic Christians.

It has to be said that the Muslim brotherhood is presently the strongest organised political force in Egypt second to the ruling political party. Recent events, especially the martyrdom of several hundred, will have already enhanced their position and while the majority are genuinely peace and partnership wanting, in reality it is the minority of activists with their agendas and missions which always dominate the majority.

The Egyptian Government with the support of Israel was right to learn the lessons of Iraq and immediately deploy substantial military forces along the borders to ensure there is no infiltration of” trained armed fighters into the country. President Mubarak and his Vice President, the USA President and Secretary of State Clinton, Prime Minister Cameron and Foreign Secretary Hague have all been right in expressing the need for orderly, planned and considered change.

Fourthly there is the danger that the expressions for an idealistic democracy and idealist expression of human rights will spread not just to neighbouring Arab autocracies but to Europe and to the UK in particular in such a way to create international instability and domestic chaos.

The issue of student loans has already been used by some extremists to bring violence to the streets of central London. Recently there have been moves to clear the activist camp from Parliament Square prior to the Olympic games next year. It is easy to imagine that if this proposal is carried out the result could be a similar outburst of popular support for the principles involved. Whereas the actual Square in Cairo is more akin to St James or Green Park, Parliament Square with the link along Whitehall to Trafalgar Square would bring the British Government and its administration to a halt as well as road traffic movement in central London. I can see Mr Cameron or any British Prime Minister and Home Secretary allowing that to go on for more than one day without forcibly removing participants who exceeded the original permission.

I have written separately about my concerns that with the dramatic changes in the composition of London and other cities and some towns, and the extremes of wealth which the financial system pursued by the Brown Bush era encouraged, that the present requirement, however necessary and essential for our economic future, to reduce employment and wages in real terms and through additional taxes and price rises, was creating a dangerous and potential revolutionary situation, especially if legitimate and desirable letting off steam protests on the streets, was allowed to become violent towards people and towards property.

The tactic of fermenting trouble to identify the extremists and introduce new controls is an established method used by all governments with the only differences that British Governments have been more skilled and effective than most, if not all others. We had an organic system which successfully enabled idealists go through the process of protests into political and administrative management, and sometimes leadership, counterbalancing the feudal tendencies of the land owning aristocracy and the amoral personal wealth acquisitiveness of the global entrepreneurs who are without national loyalties or social consciences.

It has been heartening to hear both opposition and supporters of the regime in Egypt talking of their love and loyalty to their country. I suspect that only a small percentage of English born men and women would genuinely talk in such terms whatever their political outlook. Since writing the above Mr Cameron has echoed my thoughts with his speech on the shortcomings of a multicultural society. What is needed is a balance between the dictatorial autocratic police state of the extreme right and lift or conservative militarism and the ungovernable and unstable anarchy of uprisings. Multiculturalism can work if there is an overall sense of identity and loyalty, but without it there is the potential for disaster.

I say all this as someone who has never visited Egypt or talked to Egyptians and who has had no inside knowledge of the workings of national and local government for close on two decades, but who would nevertheless be surprised if at their core things had significantly changed.. I have also has kept a constant eye on Parliamentary debates, the 24 hour news channels including Al Jazeera and Fox. and on newspapers such as the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph.

In this respect I suspect I have greater knowledge of the present and past situation in Egypt than most of the millions of tourists, with over one million from Britain, who visit the country each year, the majority staying at resorts along the Red sea, taking trips to the Valley of the Kings at Luxor and along the Nile river will know or care about the lives of those they encounter.

They may find out that those employed in Tourism will use part of their income to provide a life above subsistence for their relatives, living elsewhere in the country. This is not a criticism of the holiday maker but a reality of holidaying as it has become.

There are also those British Citizens who have married Egyptians and moved there, maintaining contact with their family and friends in the UK, who may also make visits and therefore have a good understanding in relation to the lives and position of the person married.

There will also be those who conduct business or have employment, usually on a limited contract basis. There will also be Egyptians who work in the UK and those who have requested and obtain political sanctuary. They will have made contact with some British citizens communicating something of daily life and the issues confronting the people in general and themselves in particular.

I do not know the overall numbers involved in this way except that there is an estimated 2.7 million Egyptian citizens living abroad (and said to contribute over £5 billion in 2009 from remittances). The majority of these have moved to other Arabic speaking countries with in Europe Italy having a large concentration. They will have already influenced public opinion in the countries where they reside and work.

Educated people all over the world will also know that Egypt was one of the early civilizations with a history of over 6000 years. I have Ancient Egypt in the Time Life Books series, and Ancient Civilizations by John Hayward covering the Near East and Mediterranean.

For many in the UK their knowledge of more recent history is based on the stories of Julius Caesar, Mark Anthony and Cleopatra from Shakespeare and the Cinema. In 1972 there was the Exhibition in London of the treasures and remains of Tutankhamen and I briefly looked at the catalogue and pictorial reminder before commencing this writing. Another source which has brought Egypt into British consciousness is the Agatha Christie work Death on the Nile

I also have a splendid Time Life Picture and prose book on the sights and sites of Cairo and only a few days before the present uprising, I mentioned my intention of re reading the quartet of novels by Lawrence Durrell and set in the Egyptian second city and port of Alexandria, created and named after Alexander. This work provides an interesting dimension to the normal lives of the people in that city before military rule became entrenched.

For people of my generation our “factual” knowledge of recent history commenced at school with the creation of the Suez canal and the British involvement at first financial which developed into the political. The country became independent in 1922 with a democratic constitution implemented in 1924. I became more aware of the country the year after I left school with the coming to power of Colonel Nasser and his nationalization of the Canal which led to the brief war and a petrol crisis and petrol rationing again not long after the rationing imposed as a consequence of World War II had been brought to an end.

Following the six day war with Israel Sadat took over following the death of Colonel Nassar and dramatically ended the alliance with Russia, by expelling their advisers and turning to the United States who helped finance the army and indirectly helped to establish the present day regime. Egypt effectively became a dictatorship one party state. This suited the USA in terms of having access to oil, keeping the Suez canal open and creating a buffer between Israel and more hostile Arab countries. It can be assumed that should the present regime reassert its way of doing things the mob will be organised to protest and ransack the USA and British Embassies and I noted that the wife and family of the British Ambassador was among those leaving Cairo as the week of developments progressed

The USA, UK supported strategy, appeared to fail when in 1973, Egypt motivated by wanting to regain land lost in the six day war, joined Syria in a surprise attack on Israel and with the USA and Russia both intervening before a mandated UN ceasefire. While technically Israel won the war, Egypt won the peace. Sadat visited Israel in 1977 and signed the peace Treaty in 1979 which although gaining back the Sinai territory, horrified the rest of the Arab world and led to the country’s expulsion from the Arab League of nations. This was only temporary and the Headquarters of the League is now based in Cairo.

A Muslim fundamentalist then assassinated Sadat in 1981 which is when Hosni Mubarak took over. This background is essential to understanding the outlook of Mubarak and his trusted military and political establishment and the acceptance of his domestic policy and police state controlling any opposition and limiting the economic development of the agricultural and urban working classes. It was a good life for those who were educated and obtained government positions, including the officer class in the funded and weapons supplied army by the USA.

However this is an oversimplification of the position of what happens when such a regime is allowed to flourish and where the dictator is feted in the USA and in Europe over three decades, especially, since the revolution in Iran and the rise of a Fundamentalist Islamic state and the crushing of its secular middle class and followed by 9/11.

The constitution recreated to ensure that there was only one agreed candidate for the Presidency with each term lasting six years. While in theory the power is divided between the President and Parliament, the President has the final say, and often the first say, on everything, moreover he controls the one political party allowed to have power, and he appoints the Prime Minister and Ministers in the government individually as well as regional governors. The country also operates under emergency law and used international concern on individual acts of Terrorism to give the police, open and secret, more power to maintain, surveillance, torture and imprisonment without fear of being challenged. Similar but not to the same extreme and outcome as what has happened in the UK in that the anti terror legislation resulted in local and other authorities gaining significant powers over individuals and their rights.

It is not accurate to say that the West and the USA in particular ignored the domestic tortures and suppression of political opposition but there was de facto acceptance of the situation in Egypt and in several other friendly Arab countries, because of increasing dependence on their oil and the fear of Muslim extremism.

A domestic movement for change commenced in Egypt in 2003 with the objective of democratic reform and greater civil liberties. The President decided to hold a multi candidate Presidential election in 2005 and then convicted and imprisoned the main opposition candidate who accused the regime of vote rigging and election fraud, of violence by pro Mubarak supporters and police brutality. The regime intimidates and bribes people into defending its interests. The outcome is that the overwhelming majority of voters, some 75% did not vote, and many of those who did were required in order to keep their government contracts and individual jobs. The regime also has complete control over all forms of media and with the military having the latest spy planes and spy satellites it can control the Internet and the telephone system, including mobile phones by monitoring everything and everyone or closing down to suit its interests.

This is why Presidential/Government/political Party tactics towards the uprising was not a surprise to those involved, or its capacity to say one thing to the other countries especially the USA, and to present a different view to its people via the media and anticipate that it will work as it has done for decade upon decade.

However the genie is now out of the bottle in such a way and which will impossible for things to go back as they were before without risk of achieving the very thing that is feared most, another revolutionary Muslim autocracy next door to Israel with a military capacity better than Israel. I have tried to explain why Western style democracies, particularly the USA and the UK are between a rock and a hard place when considering how to react to the latest developments and the TV coverage..

While democratic reforms and civil rights are important to the educated and the middle class Egyptians, its the basics of human survival and the opportunity to progress which is the interest of the majority, and why political and religious radicals have and will continue to be successful because they address these issues, providing social care for those who are deprived, sick and disabled.

Egypt had been able to make economic progress since World War 2, in five ways: Transit tolls from the Suez Canal, petroleum and gas productions, the maintenance of a large army who have nothing to do but train, the creation of the Aswan dam and the development of Tourism with the creation of the Red Sea holiday resorts and visits to the ancient sites such as the Valley of the Kings and the Pyramids and trips along the Nile river and to the museum of antiquities in Cairo.
The Canal remains important because the alternative around the South African Cape of Good Hope takes such greater time and is therefore that more expensive. However it is not wide and deep enough to accommodate the latest super tankers whose size compensates for the extra costs. Closure of the canal as happened for six months 1956/57 and between 1967 and 1975 hit the Egyptian economy as it did the international trading nations. The closure for 8 years reveals how stubborn the President and his regime can be.

Just as the Canal remains a national government operation so does the National oil company and which in turn owns 70% of natural gas which with petroleum products is a major export. While total production of oil and gas is only a small percentage of that required by China, the USA and Europe we would be badly affected if the supply is reduced, halted or directed to one country such as China. Until alternative energy sources are developed on the same scale petroleum and natural gas will continue to make a major contribution to the economy

To understand the significance of the military in Egypt all I need to say is that Britain with its ongoing involvement in Afghanistan and Europe together with its recent involvement in Iraq has a force of 175000 men and women while Egypt which has not needed to fire a shot in anger for over three decades has a force of nearly 1 million in fulltime and reservists with some 800000 eligible for national service each year aged 18 and continuing for three years

It is also important to understand that there are 5 military headquarters including Cairo, Alexandria and Suez and several active armies equipped with the latest arms and technologies provided by the USA and which includes the separate Presidential Guard. Only China with two and a quarter million, the USA one and a half, India, Russia and Korea with over million together with Iran, Turkey and Pakistan have more military in active service. Israel has the same as the UK.

In addition to the Presidential guard, there are a further 350000 individuals employed in the Internal national security service, including riot control, and which has several command Headquarters, and these are additional to the official police service. I do not have police numbers but it can be assumed there are half a million involved and like the army they need something do in addition to ongoing training. They are paid for and provided with weapons and equipment by the USA

These structures together with the war fighting equipped airforce with a spy plane and Satellite surveillance and Navy (ships previously provided by Russia and China) provides the opportunity to educate the 800000 national service entrants each year in the ideology of the regime as well as Egyptian national history and culture.

By my reckoning there is one soldier, security or police man for every 60 people in the country so that most families will have someone involved or has been involved. While the hierarchical authoritarian structure implies an obedient chain of command, the existence of different command structures and a substantial national service involvements means that the position of the military leadership is crucial to how the political and civil state functions.

The creation of the Aswan High Dam between the 1950 and 1970’s together with the earlier embankment dams protected the land from flooding, provided significant new growing farming lands, provided 12 additional generators of electricity, improved river travel and launched a new fishing industry in Lake Nasser. The economic impact has been substantial and significant
The final development issue is tourism, particularly, the development of the Red Sea Resort with its own International airport. The figures I have seen indicate that 500000 people are flying in or out of Egypt every week to see the historical sights or leisure at the Red sea. The impact of this number in terms of employment, provision of services and purchasing power is of increasing importance to the economy.

The tourist industry has been hit before with the Muslim extremist attacks at Luxor killing 58 people in 1997 and bombings and other attacks 2005-2007 including in Cairo and the Red Sea resort. Just when it looked as if the pressure was off tourism, the beach at the Red Sea resort had to be closed last year because of shark attacks and now this. It is understandable that those who run the tourist industry as well as those employed will have become angry and frustrated at the turn of recent events. The violence against peaceful protestors has done great damage which only a new and stable regime will begin to change international public opinion.

The government has denied responsibility although it is noted that the denial does not include the President or his Political Party. IT is interesting that to day the President and the executive Committee of the political Party have announced their resignation. The attack was planned and co-ordinated. It is also possible that army soldiers may have been hoodwinked by the advancing pro Mubarak people into thinking they had come to join the protestors and it looked as if two of the deaths came from the tanks who may have misjudged and hit protestors instead of shooting above their heads.

While rising food prices and the international monetary crisis has impacted on Egypt as elsewhere and its internal and external debt has more than doubled during the past decade and brief look at the percentages in terms of gross domestic product and international trade appears to me to indicate that over the past decade there has been variable management with better control of the external debt over the years 2005-2007. There was major denationalization a decade before followed by the encouragement of small and medium size private enterprise which has been increasingly successful. All the progress in coping with the international capitalist crisis together with the significant increases in foreign investment is now in peril with each day of the non violent insurgency continues.

I was aware that the country had a large population than the UK over 80 million and 60 million but no concept of its comparative size, twice that of Spain or Texas and California combined and 30th in the world overall dwarfing many of its neighbours. However the nature of the land means that 99% are concentrated on 5.5% which obviously has implications for industrial and manufacturing development and the economy of the greater number of the urban population.

The population has been increased with refugees from the Sudan where the number is believed to be anything from half a million to 3. There are said to be 70000 refugees from Palestine and 150000 recently arrived from Iraq, The position of refugees has already be questioned by human rights and aid organisations and will be a matter of concern as the President and Vice President have started to accuse foreigners for causing and trying to effect the outcome of the uprising.

Earlier I identified the threat of the uprising turning into a Muslim fundamentalist autocracy. The facts are that 90% of the population are Muslims with the majority of the remainder Coptic Christians. The present law does not provide for a religious based political party and this will have to be amended under any level of democratic reform.
The media has had a negative impact having been strictly controlled and censored so that the expression of anti President and anti government views is forbidden. The development of technology in surveillance with monitoring, postal, telephone and internet communications gained from impetus with the additional measures brought in after 9/11. The government is now able to close phone and internet communication as well as use to its own advantage and detriment of any opposition. The sad aspects of this is that Egypt has been regarded as being in the vanguard of Arabic art and culture.

So what is to happen next as the country cannot afford the continuing disruption and fear? For me the issue is not whether Mubarak stays as President but the extent to which there is immediate change visible to those insisting on controlling the central square, combined with stopping the violence against protestors and the taking of action against individuals, opposition parties and allowing the domestic media to report a balance account of what has and is happening. The rest of the world will also need convincing that real change is underway.